{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2681aac8-f11c-44da-b964-6d4d8ac24a2e", "symbol": "KMT", "name": "Kennametal Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 58.645, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.235, "architecture_energy": 29.436, "architecture_maturity": 30.241, "architecture_confidence": 90.594, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.53, "rotation_up": 19.67, "upward_expansion": 2.96, "deceleration": 48.23, "rotation_down": 50.88, "downward_expansion": 78.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.886667, 34.159455, 34.721118, 35.33591 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 33.13, "trend_reference": 35.932999, "distance_from_trend": -0.078006, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.549206, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.296714, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.241973, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.169715, "excess_performance": -0.29534, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.078006, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06252, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.296714, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.15059, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.04242, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.192797, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.169715, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.583585, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11058164, "relative_activity": 1.860749, "balance": 0.583585, "dry_up": 1.015892, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.096998, "annualized_volatility": 0.343789, "from_high_reference": -0.239558, "from_low_reference": 0.695794 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.932999, "fair_value_reference": 25.549206, "structural_low": 31.715, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.009104, "positive_rate": 0.541667, "directional_follow_through": 0.541667, "median_excess_return": -0.015143, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.128369, "worst_return": -0.188417, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.024216, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.087084, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.130669, "worst_return": -0.198565, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.015278, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.097676, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.362873, "worst_return": -0.187784, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.041538, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.126656, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.642439, "worst_return": -0.32051, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.033243, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.155172, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.136332, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014894, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.081237, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.018717, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.050251, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041051, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.128741, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": 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"energy": 9.668109, "activity_lines": [ 34.808, 34.735373, 35.640874, 35.833123 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 33.6, "volume": 4291947, "typical_volume": 6536502.0, "trend": 35.281307, "fair_value": 25.338315, "relative_strength": 0.943334, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.319349, "energy": 15.56744, "activity_lines": [ 34.461333, 34.464719, 35.377947, 35.734488 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 33.74, "volume": 4157938, "typical_volume": 6400554.9, "trend": 35.457907, "fair_value": 25.383843, "relative_strength": 2.645965, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.291459, "energy": 23.197918, "activity_lines": [ 34.096667, 34.304182, 35.15583, 35.635049 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 35.23, "volume": 4167209, "typical_volume": 6109790.75, "trend": 35.66636, "fair_value": 25.437694, "relative_strength": 7.413329, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.381059, "energy": 33.843425, "activity_lines": [ 34.311333, 34.453818, 35.105696, 35.620345 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.97, "volume": 4765892, "typical_volume": 5786838.45, "trend": 35.842379, "fair_value": 25.494809, "relative_strength": 2.141959, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.667538, "energy": 29.544604, "activity_lines": [ 34.178667, 34.363818, 34.943864, 35.510903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.13, "volume": 11058164, "typical_volume": 5942857.7, "trend": 35.932999, "fair_value": 25.549206, "relative_strength": -4.241973, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.23459, "energy": 29.436369, "activity_lines": [ 33.886667, 34.159455, 34.721118, 35.33591 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }