{ "ticker": { "uuid": "26828686-96fc-45c0-a53a-9a0e0915113d", "symbol": "DSX", "name": "Diana Shipping Inc.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 76.32, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -19.903, "architecture_energy": 16.348, "architecture_maturity": 24.56, "architecture_confidence": 50.047, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.44, "rotation_up": 35.79, "upward_expansion": 21.91, "deceleration": 40.49, "rotation_down": 24.16, "downward_expansion": 55.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.320667, 2.243091, 2.311104, 2.342771 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 2.42, "trend_reference": 2.353853, "distance_from_trend": 0.028102, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.214788, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.092655, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.921674, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.065671, "excess_performance": -0.059954, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.028102, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071713, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.092655, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090353, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.039217, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.238235, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.065671, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.347099, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4989987, "relative_activity": 1.435392, "balance": 0.347099, "dry_up": 0.905938, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.099954, "annualized_volatility": 0.407853, "from_high_reference": -0.166248, "from_low_reference": 0.631337 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.353853, "fair_value_reference": 2.214788, "structural_low": 2.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.003333, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.411765, "median_excess_return": -0.001282, "regime_survival": 0.588235, "best_return": 0.312155, "worst_return": -0.116279, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.072771, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.085367, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.397027, "worst_return": -0.188329, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.080769, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.167904, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.27191, "worst_return": -0.221309, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.009875, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.101198, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.409196, "worst_return": -0.47629, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-05-26", "end": "2023-06-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.031746, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-06-09", "end": "2023-09-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.045486, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-10-06", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.081337, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.05, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.07192, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007067, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.042705, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.356627, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.224619, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.112995, "active": false 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2.34674 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.05, "volume": 1380514, "typical_volume": 3668272.6, "trend": 2.290394, "fair_value": 2.230936, "relative_strength": -7.179437, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.382254, "energy": 57.393117, "activity_lines": [ 2.087333, 2.175748, 2.309899, 2.332078 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.25, "volume": 2391231, "typical_volume": 3450797.7, "trend": 2.3092, "fair_value": 2.224841, "relative_strength": 2.14093, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.811902, "energy": 28.918258, "activity_lines": [ 2.141333, 2.171068, 2.299172, 2.329472 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.43, "volume": 3835848, "typical_volume": 3399856.0, "trend": 2.334668, "fair_value": 2.219847, "relative_strength": 8.502045, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -0.770782, "energy": 6.539089, "activity_lines": [ 2.245333, 2.206544, 2.306019, 2.337266 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.42, "volume": 4989987, "typical_volume": 3476392.55, "trend": 2.353853, "fair_value": 2.214788, "relative_strength": 3.921674, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.903459, "energy": 16.348475, "activity_lines": [ 2.320667, 2.243091, 2.311104, 2.342771 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }