{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "268b3046-0deb-4875-850f-8dfd4644253f",
    "symbol": "EXSH",
    "name": "iShares STOXX Europe Select Dividend 30 UCITS ETF (DE)",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 90.118,
    "architecture_energy": 95.313,
    "architecture_maturity": 11.928,
    "architecture_confidence": 71.258,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 17.26,
        "rotation_up": 82.78,
        "upward_expansion": 95.27,
        "deceleration": 44.68,
        "rotation_down": 8.64,
        "downward_expansion": 21.94
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        26.543856,
        26.059974,
        25.734218,
        25.299226
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      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 27.190001,
    "trend_reference": 24.738514,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.099096,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 18.391085,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.478434,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 0.451776,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.137854,
    "excess_performance": -0.033038,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.099096,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.053949,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.478434,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.026595,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.004518,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.016844,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.137854,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 6.562376,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 88795,
      "relative_activity": 0.989996,
      "balance": 6.562376,
      "dry_up": 1.136143,
      "accumulation_observations": 6,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.018431,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.128333,
      "from_high_reference": -0.002385,
      "from_low_reference": 0.351109
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 24.738514,
      "fair_value_reference": 18.391085,
      "structural_low": 22.087603,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 37,
        "median_return": 0.006207,
        "positive_rate": 0.540541,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.540541,
        "median_excess_return": 0.004162,
        "regime_survival": 0.72973,
        "best_return": 0.067548,
        "worst_return": -0.111192,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 14,
        "median_return": 0.040135,
        "positive_rate": 0.642857,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.642857,
        "median_excess_return": 0.000478,
        "regime_survival": 0.571429,
        "best_return": 0.129889,
        "worst_return": -0.078754,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.062109,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": -0.023147,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.230367,
        "worst_return": -0.15249,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
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        "worst_return": -0.08751,
        "sufficient": false
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    ],
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        "regime": "balance",
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        "end": "2023-12-08",
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "regime": "deceleration",
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      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 93481.25,
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        "fair_value": 18.145755,
        "relative_strength": -0.996322,
        "stage": 2,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 26.094999,
        "volume": 90106,
        "typical_volume": 89972.65,
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        "fair_value": 18.222244,
        "relative_strength": 0.101532,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 26.73,
        "volume": 119951,
        "typical_volume": 90684.2,
        "trend": 24.600268,
        "fair_value": 18.304947,
        "relative_strength": 1.731492,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 85.721227,
        "energy": 84.340758,
        "activity_lines": [
          26.098642,
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          25.536403,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 27.190001,
        "volume": 88795,
        "typical_volume": 89692.3,
        "trend": 24.738514,
        "fair_value": 18.391085,
        "relative_strength": 0.451776,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 90.11759,
        "energy": 95.312924,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}