{ "ticker": { "uuid": "268f3107-663e-4790-96b1-aae891adb3a6", "symbol": "JPUS", "name": "JP MORGAN ETF TRUST DIVERSIFIED RETURN US EQUITY USD", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 95.277, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 80.396, "architecture_energy": 64.622, "architecture_maturity": 38.44, "architecture_confidence": 70.188, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.33, "rotation_up": 73.31, "upward_expansion": 87.87, "deceleration": 52.33, "rotation_down": 18.01, "downward_expansion": 9.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 142.502847, 141.519876, 139.4225, 137.674244 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 144.0725, "trend_reference": 135.476004, "distance_from_trend": 0.063454, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 114.120349, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.262461, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.997584, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.080082, "excess_performance": -0.045542, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.063454, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044114, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.262461, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035996, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.009976, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0207, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.080082, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.399346, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23483, "relative_activity": 0.490243, "balance": 1.399346, "dry_up": 0.526187, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018518, "annualized_volatility": 0.10333, "from_high_reference": -0.014485, "from_low_reference": 0.230566 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 135.476004, "fair_value_reference": 114.120349, "structural_low": 126.856883, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.011556, "positive_rate": 0.648649, "directional_follow_through": 0.648649, "median_excess_return": 0.002262, "regime_survival": 0.72973, "best_return": 0.059965, "worst_return": -0.073012, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.005956, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.004425, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.085346, "worst_return": -0.102604, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.051795, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.025147, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.110401, "worst_return": -0.052253, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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50357.85, "trend": 133.154233, "fair_value": 112.877501, "relative_strength": -0.914576, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.12002, "energy": 78.948676, "activity_lines": [ 140.262675, 138.947387, 136.96758, 135.533285 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 141.0991, "volume": 23710, "typical_volume": 49852.3, "trend": 133.733513, "fair_value": 113.17683, "relative_strength": 0.9261, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.914663, "energy": 78.649866, "activity_lines": [ 140.640654, 139.555156, 137.519504, 136.045857 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 142.1266, "volume": 22477, "typical_volume": 49247.8, "trend": 134.308831, "fair_value": 113.482194, "relative_strength": 2.221183, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.406251, "energy": 77.228564, "activity_lines": [ 141.2816, 140.239257, 138.147468, 136.587346 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 141.98, "volume": 31149, "typical_volume": 48999.4, "trend": 134.896753, "fair_value": 113.795157, "relative_strength": 0.98958, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.381879, "energy": 63.598145, "activity_lines": [ 141.597207, 140.740037, 138.713522, 137.08226 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 144.0725, "volume": 23483, "typical_volume": 47900.75, "trend": 135.476004, "fair_value": 114.120349, "relative_strength": -0.997584, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.395513, "energy": 64.62198, "activity_lines": [ 142.502847, 141.519876, 139.4225, 137.674244 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }