{ "ticker": { "uuid": "26941277-a3a4-45a1-9257-99f002af4535", "symbol": "FSTA", "name": "FIDELITY COVINGTON TRUST MSCI CONSUMER STAPLES INDEX ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 53.577, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 21.901, "architecture_energy": 13.417, "architecture_maturity": 21.0, "architecture_confidence": 65.048, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.53, "rotation_up": 43.29, "upward_expansion": 46.34, "deceleration": 35.67, "rotation_down": 28.55, "downward_expansion": 9.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 53.5466, 53.433473, 53.223569, 53.194204 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 53.87, "trend_reference": 53.208607, "distance_from_trend": 0.01243, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 47.90014, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.124631, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.858169, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.0233, "excess_performance": -0.148925, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.01243, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028198, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.124631, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009668, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.068582, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000411, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.0233, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.79823, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 644840, "relative_activity": 0.940509, "balance": 1.79823, "dry_up": 0.915114, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035293, "annualized_volatility": 0.136449, "from_high_reference": -0.04303, "from_low_reference": 0.144897 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 53.208607, "fair_value_reference": 47.90014, "structural_low": 50.952233, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.00996, "positive_rate": 0.647059, "directional_follow_through": 0.647059, "median_excess_return": 0.002795, "regime_survival": 0.529412, "best_return": 0.065969, "worst_return": -0.096104, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.004784, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.011381, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.099489, "worst_return": -0.03773, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.063974, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.001251, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.105177, "worst_return": -0.041624, "sufficient": true }, { 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47.697094, "relative_strength": -4.197421, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.838372, "energy": 25.273418, "activity_lines": [ 53.406, 53.205607, 53.047575, 53.082389 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 52.943, "volume": 482055, "typical_volume": 705971.7, "trend": 52.90016, "fair_value": 47.758499, "relative_strength": -4.688842, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.22636, "energy": 18.700799, "activity_lines": [ 53.297667, 53.177509, 53.052329, 53.093516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 53.66, "volume": 783004, "typical_volume": 699414.95, "trend": 53.069176, "fair_value": 47.829154, "relative_strength": -4.233273, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.824843, "energy": 16.968011, "activity_lines": [ 53.3928, 53.290586, 53.128744, 53.142538 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 53.87, "volume": 644840, "typical_volume": 685628.45, "trend": 53.208607, "fair_value": 47.90014, "relative_strength": -6.858169, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.901444, "energy": 13.417432, "activity_lines": [ 53.5466, 53.433473, 53.223569, 53.194204 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }