{ "ticker": { "uuid": "269a565e-c5e4-4add-8a24-b6396a649297", "symbol": "NTPCGREEN", "name": "NTPC GREEN ENERGY LIMITED", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 60.772, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -41.006, "architecture_energy": 56.436, "architecture_maturity": 14.482, "architecture_confidence": 60.217, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.56, "rotation_up": 19.75, "upward_expansion": 19.75, "deceleration": 45.67, "rotation_down": 66.97, "downward_expansion": 61.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 92.308, 93.635273, 97.542286, 97.919419 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 91.5, "trend_reference": 96.930333, "distance_from_trend": -0.056023, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 102.798764, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.109911, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.685497, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.050517, "excess_performance": 0.094226, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.056023, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00251, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.109911, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.146624, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.056855, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.165733, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.050517, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.548198, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16033260, "relative_activity": 0.439541, "balance": 1.548198, "dry_up": 1.293727, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047322, "annualized_volatility": 0.316297, "from_high_reference": -0.237182, "from_low_reference": 0.089286 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 96.930333, "fair_value_reference": 102.798764, "structural_low": 84.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.02763, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.042657, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.02763, "worst_return": -0.02763, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, 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"fair_value": 103.285529, "relative_strength": -2.440359, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.079932, "energy": 45.825547, "activity_lines": [ 95.322, 97.873455, 100.537571, 99.094881 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 91.970001, "volume": 15841266, "typical_volume": 53276575.5, "trend": 97.030333, "fair_value": 103.153953, "relative_strength": -4.848192, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.609377, "energy": 61.382656, "activity_lines": [ 94.003334, 96.342182, 99.759381, 98.772817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 96.32, "volume": 130767777, "typical_volume": 59285615.55, "trend": 97.141667, "fair_value": 103.075402, "relative_strength": 2.131042, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.676, "energy": 45.143858, "activity_lines": [ 94.558667, 95.884728, 99.386762, 98.726989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 90.029999, "volume": 26124126, "typical_volume": 43010411.55, "trend": 96.905667, "fair_value": 102.927159, "relative_strength": -6.696104, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.493825, "energy": 54.014567, "activity_lines": [ 92.998666, 94.495818, 98.37519, 98.268172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 91.5, "volume": 16033260, "typical_volume": 36477263.25, "trend": 96.930333, "fair_value": 102.798764, "relative_strength": -5.685497, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.006082, "energy": 56.435533, "activity_lines": [ 92.308, 93.635273, 97.542286, 97.919419 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }