{ "ticker": { "uuid": "269cdd45-759b-4ada-b0fa-3c1f180ec2f3", "symbol": "A1RE34", "name": "Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 81.5, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 2.646, "architecture_energy": 9.981, "architecture_maturity": 18.096, "architecture_confidence": 44.331, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.56, "rotation_up": 22.44, "upward_expansion": 23.61, "deceleration": 64.1, "rotation_down": 42.85, "downward_expansion": 32.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 63.864001, 64.906717, 63.398752, 63.129973 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 63.810001, "trend_reference": 64.384695, "distance_from_trend": -0.008926, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 113.475047, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.437674, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -18.9968, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.105076, "excess_performance": -0.048028, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.008926, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008035, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.437674, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.087903, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.189968, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.249577, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.105076, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 9.108333, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22, "relative_activity": 0.030368, "balance": 9.108333, "dry_up": 0.34716, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062177, "annualized_volatility": 0.523561, "from_high_reference": -0.438896, "from_low_reference": 0.296192 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 64.384695, "fair_value_reference": 113.475047, "structural_low": 49.228832, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.036167, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.009751, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.101612, "worst_return": -0.313197, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.153957, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.172145, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.123265, "worst_return": -0.450934, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.314245, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.401123, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.033781, "worst_return": -0.404178, "sufficient": 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"active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.016788, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.008296, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.255078, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.001916, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.114198, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-24", 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114.381668, "relative_strength": -22.03205, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -3.951212, "energy": 8.881915, "activity_lines": [ 64.19252, 65.079137, 62.802975, 63.124411 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 65.580002, "volume": 906, "typical_volume": 748.0, "trend": 64.635753, "fair_value": 113.937535, "relative_strength": -20.494066, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 5.313909, "energy": 15.542149, "activity_lines": [ 64.097334, 65.203892, 63.188761, 63.183247 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 63.810001, "volume": 22, "typical_volume": 724.45, "trend": 64.384695, "fair_value": 113.475047, "relative_strength": -18.9968, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 2.645697, "energy": 9.981174, "activity_lines": [ 63.864001, 64.906717, 63.398752, 63.129973 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }