{ "ticker": { "uuid": "269efea0-a23d-43d0-8f76-b887d32f5bca", "symbol": "1540", "name": "Roundtop Machinery Industries Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 93.543, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.007, "architecture_energy": 55.042, "architecture_maturity": 21.652, "architecture_confidence": 84.862, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.47, "rotation_up": 13.32, "upward_expansion": 12.54, "deceleration": 36.67, "rotation_down": 68.76, "downward_expansion": 85.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.709278, 20.198971, 20.358996, 20.578043 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 19.200001, "trend_reference": 21.230603, "distance_from_trend": -0.095645, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 23.696276, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.189746, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -38.405121, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.159494, "excess_performance": -0.600866, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.095645, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018241, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.189746, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036403, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.384051, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064178, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.159494, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.715318, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1117582, "relative_activity": 0.709969, "balance": 0.715318, "dry_up": 0.922147, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073378, "annualized_volatility": 0.243068, "from_high_reference": -0.299578, "from_low_reference": 0.04918 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.230603, "fair_value_reference": 23.696276, "structural_low": 18.299999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.003279, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": -0.019556, "regime_survival": 0.411765, "best_return": 0.130159, "worst_return": -0.21519, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.039474, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.060014, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.100865, "worst_return": -0.188467, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.069255, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.058838, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.403458, "worst_return": -0.254034, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.124034, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.135545, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.189717, "worst_return": -0.334278, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-10-27", "end": "2023-12-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.085627, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2023-12-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01662, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-22", "end": "2023-12-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008547, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-05", "end": "2024-03-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.020173, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 1.560359, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.25711, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.033493, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.032951, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.082982, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", 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"activity_lines": [ 21.019076, 20.906879, 20.686851, 21.007716 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.416267, "volume": 1350025, "typical_volume": 1528495.25, "trend": 21.469599, "fair_value": 23.610917, "relative_strength": -34.968971, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.811487, "energy": 15.623847, "activity_lines": [ 20.835061, 20.851501, 20.65807, 20.936996 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.4, "volume": 2324492, "typical_volume": 1583573.5, "trend": 21.380201, "fair_value": 23.639976, "relative_strength": -36.293731, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.836907, "energy": 27.900099, "activity_lines": [ 20.340844, 20.597503, 20.537261, 20.803474 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.0, "volume": 1014212, "typical_volume": 1569349.15, "trend": 21.313976, "fair_value": 23.670133, "relative_strength": -34.793052, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.730498, "energy": 36.745247, "activity_lines": [ 20.101687, 20.469343, 20.483646, 20.714428 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 19.200001, "volume": 1117582, "typical_volume": 1574127.55, "trend": 21.230603, "fair_value": 23.696276, "relative_strength": -38.405121, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.006834, "energy": 55.041629, "activity_lines": [ 19.709278, 20.198971, 20.358996, 20.578043 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }