{ "ticker": { "uuid": "26a22319-4a72-4fa3-95e3-b1d8dcc7285f", "symbol": "ARCHIES", "name": "Archies Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.217, "architecture_energy": 26.369, "architecture_maturity": 27.256, "architecture_confidence": 92.469, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.7, "rotation_up": 18.11, "upward_expansion": 2.03, "deceleration": 50.62, "rotation_down": 48.98, "downward_expansion": 75.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.951333, 14.058182, 14.287857, 14.373978 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 14.06, "trend_reference": 14.720667, "distance_from_trend": -0.04488, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.692821, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.380421, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.536022, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.134769, "excess_performance": -0.09106, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.04488, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.096504, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.380421, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034641, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.14536, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023643, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.134769, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.991233, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 57980, "relative_activity": 0.638473, "balance": 0.991233, "dry_up": 0.758388, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080643, "annualized_volatility": 0.424616, "from_high_reference": -0.423298, "from_low_reference": 0.294659 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.720667, "fair_value_reference": 22.692821, "structural_low": 10.86, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.016809, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.025015, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.148594, "worst_return": -0.082403, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.12777, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.11356, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.212042, "worst_return": -0.330454, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.154118, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.113405, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.048421, "worst_return": -0.420235, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.031579, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.184056, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.259162, "worst_return": -0.418649, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.055649, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.067742, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.022351, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014906, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.043376, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.025287, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.173356, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010373, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.186258, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.044915, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.072559, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.089312, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.207813, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.06516, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 25.85, "volume": 128039, "typical_volume": 770729.35, "trend": 22.495, "fair_value": 18.13782, "relative_strength": 9.244247, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", 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26.131864, "activity_lines": [ 14.230667, 14.313818, 14.404286, 14.594323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.75, "volume": 63060, "typical_volume": 97959.15, "trend": 14.995667, "fair_value": 22.863462, "relative_strength": -14.638489, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.682948, "energy": 33.401425, "activity_lines": [ 14.044, 14.188909, 14.352381, 14.503398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.77, "volume": 36314, "typical_volume": 94870.1, "trend": 14.840333, "fair_value": 22.781218, "relative_strength": -16.141974, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.212373, "energy": 34.378531, "activity_lines": [ 13.932, 14.089636, 14.307, 14.424323 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.06, "volume": 57980, "typical_volume": 90810.35, "trend": 14.720667, "fair_value": 22.692821, "relative_strength": -14.536022, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.216627, "energy": 26.369387, "activity_lines": [ 13.951333, 14.058182, 14.287857, 14.373978 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }