{ "ticker": { "uuid": "26a8013b-0455-4139-96dc-be5b6ba8683d", "symbol": "002550", "name": "Changzhou Qianhong Biopharma CO.,LTD", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 0.612, "architecture_energy": 10.749, "architecture_maturity": 26.128, "architecture_confidence": 68.977, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 66.83, "rotation_up": 36.15, "upward_expansion": 27.85, "deceleration": 46.86, "rotation_down": 14.85, "downward_expansion": 45.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.798, 6.631455, 6.601274, 6.775943 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 7.04, "trend_reference": 7.059873, "distance_from_trend": -0.002815, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.416416, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.097186, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.086117, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.092832, "excess_performance": -0.100232, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.002815, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077368, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.097186, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00132, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.140861, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.196292, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.092832, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.705627, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 100054224, "relative_activity": 1.114782, "balance": 0.705627, "dry_up": 1.468352, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069943, "annualized_volatility": 0.288684, "from_high_reference": -0.397495, "from_low_reference": 0.237258 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.059873, "fair_value_reference": 6.416416, "structural_low": 5.69, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.058201, "positive_rate": 0.818182, "directional_follow_through": 0.818182, "median_excess_return": 0.049219, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.439432, "worst_return": -0.02972, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.109998, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.130172, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.074391, "worst_return": -0.133208, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.370378, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.507117, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.077931, "worst_return": 0.080676, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.411327, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.116618, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.553755, "worst_return": 0.249338, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.14741, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.031512, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.070501, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.124236, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.011551, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.137109, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010239, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.073427, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.165785, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.333763, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.166172, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013547, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.136988, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 4.979658, "volume": 55046464, "typical_volume": 44880660.15, "trend": 5.44226, "fair_value": 4.610968, "relative_strength": -6.386415, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.307535, "energy": 25.512937, "activity_lines": [ 6.604, 6.410194, 6.608673, 6.843245 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.48, "volume": 124873178, "typical_volume": 86075785.5, "trend": 7.11298, "fair_value": 6.391423, "relative_strength": -20.513711, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.332367, "energy": 27.427964, "activity_lines": [ 6.618, 6.430052, 6.574656, 6.799423 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.79, "volume": 83353306, "typical_volume": 87627721.75, "trend": 7.080959, "fair_value": 6.403389, "relative_strength": -14.160072, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.182668, "energy": 21.004979, "activity_lines": [ 6.693333, 6.511273, 6.574772, 6.778586 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.04, "volume": 100054224, "typical_volume": 89752284.75, "trend": 7.059873, "fair_value": 6.416416, "relative_strength": -14.086117, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.611618, "energy": 10.749099, "activity_lines": [ 6.798, 6.631455, 6.601274, 6.775943 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }