{ "ticker": { "uuid": "26b85967-677b-4cb4-b24e-168f9a8c6c37", "symbol": "GWRE", "name": "Guidewire Software Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 74.695, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 35.064, "architecture_energy": 41.426, "architecture_maturity": 22.562, "architecture_confidence": 67.399, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.79, "rotation_up": 63.54, "upward_expansion": 44.75, "deceleration": 26.42, "rotation_down": 14.77, "downward_expansion": 19.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 154.084667, 143.791818, 139.559857, 140.099355 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 170.53, "trend_reference": 141.281, "distance_from_trend": 0.207027, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 160.920641, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.059715, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.312558, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.330291, "excess_performance": 0.204666, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.207027, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.140717, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.059715, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.171549, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.143126, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.240873, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.330291, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.194679, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5174994, "relative_activity": 0.707461, "balance": 1.194679, "dry_up": 0.866564, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.126955, "annualized_volatility": 0.718594, "from_high_reference": -0.374431, "from_low_reference": 0.66696 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 141.281, "fair_value_reference": 160.920641, "structural_low": 102.3, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.001096, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.005545, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.199747, "worst_return": -0.078244, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.000121, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.023735, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.242482, "worst_return": -0.429104, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.067362, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.053461, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.277905, "worst_return": -0.415127, "sufficient": false }, { 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false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.428713, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.200193, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.129677, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.115015, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.014376, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.175216, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.137977, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.05375, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.268552, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.233669, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 79.13, "volume": 2912809, "typical_volume": 3054615.4, "trend": 76.609333, "fair_value": 93.361218, "relative_strength": 3.813418, "stage": 1, "regime": 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124.202, 129.239091, 134.435905, 138.751333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 136.13, "volume": 5586826, "typical_volume": 8052832.4, "trend": 146.863667, "fair_value": 159.108333, "relative_strength": -32.944644, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.838468, "energy": 31.924837, "activity_lines": [ 128.083333, 129.895273, 134.178857, 137.910516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 150.02, "volume": 7786362, "typical_volume": 7868685.3, "trend": 145.200333, "fair_value": 159.566987, "relative_strength": -24.099053, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.255877, "energy": 10.842391, "activity_lines": [ 136.59, 133.170182, 135.204333, 138.114151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 138.23, "volume": 5991320, "typical_volume": 7453581.55, "trend": 142.959333, "fair_value": 159.925064, "relative_strength": -28.789185, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.302362, "energy": 18.63248, "activity_lines": [ 139.336, 134.091091, 135.084571, 137.664452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 151.94, "volume": 6402571, "typical_volume": 7396486.35, "trend": 141.769667, "fair_value": 160.356987, "relative_strength": -21.662873, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.787908, "energy": 20.059866, "activity_lines": [ 144.627333, 137.357636, 136.416429, 138.243849 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 170.53, "volume": 5174994, "typical_volume": 7314879.05, "trend": 141.281, "fair_value": 160.920641, "relative_strength": -14.312558, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 35.063886, "energy": 41.426162, "activity_lines": [ 154.084667, 143.791818, 139.559857, 140.099355 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }