{ "ticker": { "uuid": "26bdc0c5-7b9b-48e0-b204-8d2e85e1baff", "symbol": "AFISH", "name": "Arctic Fish Holding AS", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.195, "architecture_energy": 56.79, "architecture_maturity": 19.59, "architecture_confidence": 87.546, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.85, "rotation_up": 14.2, "upward_expansion": 10.84, "deceleration": 40.19, "rotation_down": 63.21, "downward_expansion": 84.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.426667, 26.28, 27.841905, 28.701936 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 24.4, "trend_reference": 29.393333, "distance_from_trend": -0.16988, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 51.760256, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.528596, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.79098, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.158621, "excess_performance": -0.283614, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.16988, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049989, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.528596, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035708, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.31791, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007911, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.158621, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.182803, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2817, "relative_activity": 0.261859, "balance": 1.182803, "dry_up": 0.232764, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.15889, "annualized_volatility": 0.722127, "from_high_reference": -0.512, "from_low_reference": 0.06087 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.393333, "fair_value_reference": 51.760256, "structural_low": 23.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.03891, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.633333, "median_excess_return": -0.051913, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 0.622449, "worst_return": -0.247619, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.058333, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.120718, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.219048, "worst_return": -0.328696, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.222222, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.321849, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.345455, "worst_return": -0.478261, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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17269.85, "trend": 29.826667, "fair_value": 52.600641, "relative_strength": -30.941779, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.901894, "energy": 60.072992, "activity_lines": [ 25.813333, 27.101818, 28.680952, 29.222796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.0, "volume": 1358, "typical_volume": 17167.75, "trend": 29.646667, "fair_value": 52.164744, "relative_strength": -25.104497, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.121288, "energy": 48.014781, "activity_lines": [ 26.066667, 26.912727, 28.389524, 29.04043 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.4, "volume": 2817, "typical_volume": 10757.7, "trend": 29.393333, "fair_value": 51.760256, "relative_strength": -31.79098, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.19465, "energy": 56.789548, "activity_lines": [ 25.426667, 26.28, 27.841905, 28.701936 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }