{ "ticker": { "uuid": "26bf7130-0207-4237-8ec6-3387529c6b00", "symbol": "XSFR", "name": "Xtrackers S&P Select Frontier Swap UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 69.577, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 58.466, "architecture_energy": 38.511, "architecture_maturity": 58.026, "architecture_confidence": 65.501, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.64, "rotation_up": 43.49, "upward_expansion": 74.6, "deceleration": 64.2, "rotation_down": 27.95, "downward_expansion": 10.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 2244.216667, 2242.140909, 2227.053571, 2191.416667 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2250.25, "trend_reference": 2153.208333, "distance_from_trend": 0.045068, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1714.15091, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.312749, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.693101, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.098621, "excess_performance": 0.047385, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.045068, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027981, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.312749, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025306, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.006931, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050849, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.098621, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.763452, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1965, "relative_activity": 0.369788, "balance": 1.763452, "dry_up": 0.59359, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02218, "annualized_volatility": 0.149261, "from_high_reference": -0.140365, "from_low_reference": 0.236062 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2153.208333, "fair_value_reference": 1714.15091, "structural_low": 1880.712036, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.009927, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": -0.001772, "regime_survival": 0.735294, "best_return": 0.061404, "worst_return": -0.248953, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.032421, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.00825, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.123838, "worst_return": -0.119748, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.049689, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.014018, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.192637, "worst_return": 0.01329, 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"fair_value": 1692.557961, "relative_strength": 3.982836, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.210655, "energy": 62.045649, "activity_lines": [ 2248.483333, 2235.427273, 2198.080952, 2166.78172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2234.0, "volume": 1841, "typical_volume": 6262.25, "trend": 2142.483333, "fair_value": 1697.90732, "relative_strength": 1.379286, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.399213, "energy": 54.963646, "activity_lines": [ 2246.733333, 2237.027273, 2206.125, 2173.032258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2221.25, "volume": 3897, "typical_volume": 5813.1, "trend": 2146.083333, "fair_value": 1703.126872, "relative_strength": -0.473237, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.674663, "energy": 51.115166, "activity_lines": [ 2238.366667, 2235.554545, 2212.291667, 2178.113978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2253.0, "volume": 4914, "typical_volume": 5374.45, "trend": 2150.975, "fair_value": 1708.646103, "relative_strength": -0.31108, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.668159, "energy": 46.127823, "activity_lines": [ 2242.966667, 2239.536364, 2220.535714, 2185.011828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2250.25, "volume": 1965, "typical_volume": 5313.85, "trend": 2153.208333, "fair_value": 1714.15091, "relative_strength": -0.693101, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.466058, "energy": 38.510929, "activity_lines": [ 2244.216667, 2242.140909, 2227.053571, 2191.416667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }