{ "ticker": { "uuid": "26c3a354-997f-435a-89d9-288bb675b016", "symbol": "BFLY", "name": "Butterfly Network Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 69.543, "architecture_energy": 40.896, "architecture_maturity": 64.568, "architecture_confidence": 73.556, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.5, "rotation_up": 38.49, "upward_expansion": 67.45, "deceleration": 76.96, "rotation_down": 26.62, "downward_expansion": 10.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.57, 7.553818, 6.634619, 5.967441 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 8.83, "trend_reference": 5.175667, "distance_from_trend": 0.70606, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.545648, "distance_from_fair_value": 2.468665, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 99.007452, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 1.612426, "excess_performance": 1.486801, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.70606, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.362735, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 2.468665, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 1.56288, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.990075, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.695445, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.612426, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.300753, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 38813363, "relative_activity": 1.148825, "balance": 1.300753, "dry_up": 1.168502, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.176146, "annualized_volatility": 1.089294, "from_high_reference": -0.088751, "from_low_reference": 5.589552 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.175667, "fair_value_reference": 2.545648, "structural_low": 2.82, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.077083, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.033646, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.372796, "worst_return": -0.27088, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.141791, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.205729, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.508333, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.502923, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.63282, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.414179, "worst_return": -0.591667, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.166045, 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"New", "return": 0.141361, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.737805, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.115672, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.093137, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.029787, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward 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[ 8.042, 6.942909, 5.926333, 5.341892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.62, "volume": 48190648, "typical_volume": 31873239.8, "trend": 4.813, "fair_value": 2.443276, "relative_strength": 67.769533, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.783591, "energy": 54.419656, "activity_lines": [ 7.649333, 7.045273, 6.061095, 5.465054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.58, "volume": 34148104, "typical_volume": 32176547.25, "trend": 4.904, "fair_value": 2.470135, "relative_strength": 64.300525, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.335, "energy": 40.211989, "activity_lines": [ 7.171333, 7.095636, 6.178571, 5.579054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.11, "volume": 36760509, "typical_volume": 32954985.1, "trend": 5.016, "fair_value": 2.501353, "relative_strength": 71.210592, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.684031, "energy": 29.610952, "activity_lines": [ 7.024667, 7.192364, 6.332571, 5.721376 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.83, "volume": 38813363, "typical_volume": 33785256.85, "trend": 5.175667, "fair_value": 2.545648, "relative_strength": 99.007452, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.542728, "energy": 40.895562, "activity_lines": [ 7.57, 7.553818, 6.634619, 5.967441 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }