{ "ticker": { "uuid": "26c473a3-dce4-4422-bfed-958f07c29c4e", "symbol": "603948", "name": "Zhejiang Jianye Chemical Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.946, "architecture_energy": 81.044, "architecture_maturity": 37.729, "architecture_confidence": 85.795, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.03, "rotation_up": 11.33, "upward_expansion": 21.94, "deceleration": 34.24, "rotation_down": 75.53, "downward_expansion": 92.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.792, 21.325091, 23.046137, 24.195492 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 20.68, "trend_reference": 25.741183, "distance_from_trend": -0.196618, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.871732, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.009186, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.985648, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.339508, "excess_performance": -0.296304, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.196618, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058325, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.009186, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.28085, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.189856, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.154399, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.339508, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.614746, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7389708, "relative_activity": 0.882527, "balance": 0.614746, "dry_up": 1.129111, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.118276, "annualized_volatility": 0.472676, "from_high_reference": -0.425076, "from_low_reference": 0.188506 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.741183, "fair_value_reference": 20.871732, "structural_low": 17.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.023772, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.002704, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.269717, "worst_return": -0.263741, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.017168, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.027401, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.485576, "worst_return": -0.140437, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.068747, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.019395, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.496541, "worst_return": -0.296402, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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24.946667, 25.056612, 25.597934, 26.240304 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 23.0, "volume": 19683400, "typical_volume": 8478794.15, "trend": 26.672183, "fair_value": 20.941315, "relative_strength": -12.344727, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.823042, "energy": 42.664767, "activity_lines": [ 24.35, 24.627671, 25.284908, 25.996507 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.950001, "volume": 14244809, "typical_volume": 8635690.0, "trend": 26.446517, "fair_value": 20.938004, "relative_strength": -23.083241, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.768139, "energy": 67.438851, "activity_lines": [ 22.482667, 23.526907, 24.612311, 25.498302 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.34, "volume": 8989392, "typical_volume": 8492531.55, "trend": 26.195183, "fair_value": 20.929971, "relative_strength": -26.241255, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.362122, "energy": 84.131347, "activity_lines": [ 20.871334, 22.446941, 23.934142, 24.975301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.389999, "volume": 7193884, "typical_volume": 8433837.1, "trend": 25.96185, "fair_value": 20.908934, "relative_strength": -22.122802, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.498599, "energy": 85.370102, "activity_lines": [ 19.961333, 21.711875, 23.407544, 24.536256 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.68, "volume": 7389708, "typical_volume": 8373355.25, "trend": 25.741183, "fair_value": 20.871732, "relative_strength": -18.985648, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.945654, "energy": 81.044117, "activity_lines": [ 19.792, 21.325091, 23.046137, 24.195492 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }