{ "ticker": { "uuid": "26c6cf12-7ec3-432f-bf3b-40d5c0ebe70e", "symbol": "XIID", "name": "Reksa Dana Indeks Premier ETF Index IDX30", "exchange": "JKT", "country": "ID", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^JKSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 90.14, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -31.137, "architecture_energy": 27.656, "architecture_maturity": 94.436, "architecture_confidence": 59.521, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.78, "rotation_up": 34.94, "upward_expansion": 19.79, "deceleration": 46.93, "rotation_down": 24.89, "downward_expansion": 58.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 434.666667, 426.254545, 430.366667, 442.531183 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 442.0, "trend_reference": 461.833333, "distance_from_trend": -0.042945, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 499.557692, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.115217, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 7.646222, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.124752, "excess_performance": 0.067504, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.042945, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065556, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.115217, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044877, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.076462, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007497, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.124752, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.749108, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 76000, "relative_activity": 4.682686, "balance": 0.749108, "dry_up": 2.054837, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041942, "annualized_volatility": 0.277875, "from_high_reference": -0.188991, "from_low_reference": 0.118987 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 461.833333, "fair_value_reference": 499.557692, "structural_low": 395.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.011414, "positive_rate": 0.55, "directional_follow_through": 0.45, "median_excess_return": 0.006022, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.088517, "worst_return": -0.164905, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.030769, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.002155, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.13785, "worst_return": -0.142558, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.009148, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.022371, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.015595, "worst_return": -0.035971, "sufficient": 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472.666667, "fair_value": 502.378205, "relative_strength": 8.384589, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.94025, "energy": 58.22566, "activity_lines": [ 411.133333, 415.581818, 434.266667, 451.086022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 434.0, "volume": 14800, "typical_volume": 16325.0, "trend": 470.133333, "fair_value": 501.692308, "relative_strength": 10.209584, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.343452, "energy": 44.77411, "activity_lines": [ 418.4, 417.290909, 432.642857, 448.591398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 431.0, "volume": 41500, "typical_volume": 18245.0, "trend": 467.3, "fair_value": 500.961538, "relative_strength": 8.901512, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.778588, "energy": 37.427176, "activity_lines": [ 422.8, 419.163636, 431.157143, 446.066667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 435.0, "volume": 1100, "typical_volume": 17990.0, "trend": 464.5, "fair_value": 500.25641, "relative_strength": 9.030532, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.356336, "energy": 24.403421, "activity_lines": [ 428.466667, 422.036364, 430.314286, 443.982796 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 442.0, "volume": 76000, "typical_volume": 16230.0, "trend": 461.833333, "fair_value": 499.557692, "relative_strength": 7.646222, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.136525, "energy": 27.656142, "activity_lines": [ 434.666667, 426.254545, 430.366667, 442.531183 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }