{ "ticker": { "uuid": "26c91af8-760f-4eaf-8b0d-4c45c3acd2f8", "symbol": "MTRX", "name": "Matrix Service Co", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 50.77, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -21.584, "architecture_energy": 32.697, "architecture_maturity": 46.815, "architecture_confidence": 68.985, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.69, "rotation_up": 14.6, "upward_expansion": 17.99, "deceleration": 57.55, "rotation_down": 65.44, "downward_expansion": 47.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.984, 12.422909, 12.645476, 12.439269 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 11.91, "trend_reference": 12.326667, "distance_from_trend": -0.033802, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.901282, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.000733, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.358467, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.076854, "excess_performance": -0.1106, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.033802, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025158, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.000733, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073615, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.173585, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035229, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.076854, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.085525, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1096152, "relative_activity": 0.958829, "balance": 1.085525, "dry_up": 0.831813, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081365, "annualized_volatility": 0.357539, "from_high_reference": -0.253993, "from_low_reference": 0.205466 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.326667, "fair_value_reference": 11.901282, "structural_low": 9.88, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.034453, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.411765, "median_excess_return": -0.034986, "regime_survival": 0.647059, "best_return": 0.48875, "worst_return": -0.241794, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.013695, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.079757, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.214058, "worst_return": -0.33162, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.004208, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.12128, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.63375, "worst_return": -0.283091, "sufficient": true }, { 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.148204, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.093268, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.041406, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.107981, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.221704, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": 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66.562613, "energy": 70.399954, "activity_lines": [ 13.776667, 13.368545, 12.740238, 12.5 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 12.53, "volume": 922026, "typical_volume": 1316660.3, "trend": 12.313667, "fair_value": 11.718782, "relative_strength": -15.315839, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.08664, "energy": 44.798397, "activity_lines": [ 13.403333, 13.26, 12.773429, 12.515785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 12.49, "volume": 1123838, "typical_volume": 1329846.2, "trend": 12.324, "fair_value": 11.760705, "relative_strength": -16.548768, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.149344, "energy": 23.215482, "activity_lines": [ 13.056667, 13.148, 12.797714, 12.527161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.15, "volume": 858622, "typical_volume": 1323229.6, "trend": 12.338, "fair_value": 11.798654, "relative_strength": -14.616769, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.41198, "energy": 16.945068, "activity_lines": [ 12.668, 12.992909, 12.782952, 12.515935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.34, "volume": 854090, "typical_volume": 1316565.05, "trend": 12.357667, "fair_value": 11.837115, "relative_strength": -11.110496, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.75775, "energy": 21.55949, "activity_lines": [ 12.446667, 12.872909, 12.780762, 12.516065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.6, "volume": 994915, "typical_volume": 1291874.1, "trend": 12.342667, "fair_value": 11.867949, "relative_strength": -16.18426, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.774387, "energy": 26.941959, "activity_lines": [ 12.088, 12.609455, 12.701524, 12.467183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.91, "volume": 1096152, "typical_volume": 1143219.9, "trend": 12.326667, "fair_value": 11.901282, "relative_strength": -17.358467, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.584066, "energy": 32.697086, "activity_lines": [ 11.984, 12.422909, 12.645476, 12.439269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }