{ "ticker": { "uuid": "26d29711-d690-4ef2-90ed-e745f898f4d3", "symbol": "HYD", "name": "VANECK HIGH YIELD MUNI ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 89.672, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -16.408, "architecture_energy": 30.961, "architecture_maturity": 44.199, "architecture_confidence": 70.106, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.81, "rotation_up": 16.79, "upward_expansion": 18.58, "deceleration": 68.77, "rotation_down": 59.66, "downward_expansion": 38.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 50.375747, 50.683166, 50.753063, 50.662676 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 50.48, "trend_reference": 50.560356, "distance_from_trend": -0.001589, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 48.216654, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.046941, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.200474, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.003803, "excess_performance": -0.121821, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.001589, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006075, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.046941, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017137, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.102005, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017676, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.003803, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.992936, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4838295, "relative_activity": 1.194762, "balance": 0.992936, "dry_up": 1.192059, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.009609, "annualized_volatility": 0.056359, "from_high_reference": -0.018497, "from_low_reference": 0.065623 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 50.560356, "fair_value_reference": 48.216654, "structural_low": 49.141312, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.007266, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.01571, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.017903, "worst_return": -0.010264, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.009614, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.04128, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.033364, "worst_return": -0.004295, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.003949, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.0554, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.04239, "worst_return": -0.046404, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.021685, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002122, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008797, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0196, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003618, "active": 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3956079.1, "trend": 50.565765, "fair_value": 48.147172, "relative_strength": -7.21136, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.028107, "energy": 12.003572, "activity_lines": [ 50.750382, 50.932816, 50.825585, 50.702475 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 50.026767, "volume": 6333999, "typical_volume": 4091192.75, "trend": 50.557881, "fair_value": 48.181141, "relative_strength": -8.126597, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.804658, "energy": 33.234333, "activity_lines": [ 50.446479, 50.763382, 50.767423, 50.667701 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 50.48, "volume": 4838295, "typical_volume": 4049589.3, "trend": 50.560356, "fair_value": 48.216654, "relative_strength": -10.200474, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.407608, "energy": 30.961314, "activity_lines": [ 50.375747, 50.683166, 50.753063, 50.662676 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }