{ "ticker": { "uuid": "26d69411-4b08-4279-a991-91ef821eb2da", "symbol": "COH", "name": "Coheris SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -69.288, "architecture_energy": 63.061, "architecture_maturity": 11.983, "architecture_confidence": 77.39, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.89, "rotation_up": 9.16, "upward_expansion": 11.6, "deceleration": 38.92, "rotation_down": 74.41, "downward_expansion": 87.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.836667, 11.263922, 11.392488, 11.496119 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 10.45, "trend_reference": 11.93991, "distance_from_trend": -0.124784, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.478857, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.232477, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.720611, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.276817, "excess_performance": -0.330128, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.124784, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073595, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.232477, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.115836, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.197206, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.12964, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.276817, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.894319, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6414, "relative_activity": 1.636558, "balance": 0.894319, "dry_up": 1.975786, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081856, "annualized_volatility": 0.406362, "from_high_reference": -0.323625, "from_low_reference": 0.283784 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.93991, "fair_value_reference": 8.478857, "structural_low": 9.76, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.003321, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.044419, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.127854, "worst_return": -0.06695, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.005201, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.023165, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.026179, "worst_return": -0.015777, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.256545, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.37283, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.256545, "worst_return": 0.256545, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.05, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.019519, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.040189, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.651481, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003401, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.243056, 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after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.967264, "energy": 11.815259, "activity_lines": [ 11.914772, 11.877717, 11.61458, 11.854913 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.1, "volume": 2622, "typical_volume": 3323.45, "trend": 12.313243, "fair_value": 8.368013, "relative_strength": -10.354232, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.657033, "energy": 24.610172, "activity_lines": [ 11.593333, 11.772069, 11.576497, 11.768898 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.95, "volume": 8814, "typical_volume": 3479.6, "trend": 12.18991, "fair_value": 8.406865, "relative_strength": -12.1757, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.093162, "energy": 33.933095, "activity_lines": [ 11.3, 11.631544, 11.529605, 11.680947 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.95, "volume": 13124, "typical_volume": 3943.1, "trend": 12.07491, "fair_value": 8.445091, "relative_strength": -13.777794, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.583493, "energy": 37.874875, "activity_lines": [ 11.116667, 11.489755, 11.482475, 11.600952 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.45, "volume": 6414, "typical_volume": 3919.2, "trend": 11.93991, "fair_value": 8.478857, "relative_strength": -19.720611, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.287985, "energy": 63.061281, "activity_lines": [ 10.836667, 11.263922, 11.392488, 11.496119 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }