{ "ticker": { "uuid": "26d7e8a8-b45a-44ac-b668-54c889be2777", "symbol": "MFED", "name": "Amundi MSCI EMU ESG Broad Transition UCITS ETF ACC", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 78.521, "architecture_energy": 57.66, "architecture_maturity": 60.168, "architecture_confidence": 75.671, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.72, "rotation_up": 50.91, "upward_expansion": 80.19, "deceleration": 67.93, "rotation_down": 27.82, "downward_expansion": 9.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 370.963328, 369.902724, 363.385235, 356.560428 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 378.299988, "trend_reference": 349.489999, "distance_from_trend": 0.082434, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 300.943798, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.257045, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.031785, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.10372, "excess_performance": 0.050408, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.082434, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042098, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.257045, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.07928, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.050318, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011574, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.10372, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.615785, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13072, "relative_activity": 1.316455, "balance": 3.615785, "dry_up": 0.819612, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022591, "annualized_volatility": 0.167602, "from_high_reference": -0.004867, "from_low_reference": 0.253895 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 349.489999, "fair_value_reference": 300.943798, "structural_low": 307.399994, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.032569, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.004369, "regime_survival": 0.909091, "best_return": 0.046006, "worst_return": -0.040469, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.053723, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.033026, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.089416, "worst_return": 0.021622, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.147942, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.034123, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.147942, "worst_return": 0.147942, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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364.152724, 353.773808, 349.029892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 367.600006, "volume": 4633, "typical_volume": 10727.95, "trend": 344.79, "fair_value": 298.7464, "relative_strength": 7.536734, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.384868, "energy": 80.268405, "activity_lines": [ 369.95, 365.800908, 355.753332, 350.595161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 364.149994, "volume": 8286, "typical_volume": 10750.9, "trend": 345.996666, "fair_value": 299.265476, "relative_strength": 6.290739, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.243197, "energy": 57.733916, "activity_lines": [ 368.156665, 366.351816, 357.320475, 351.844193 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 366.950012, "volume": 6002, "typical_volume": 10196.25, "trend": 346.991667, "fair_value": 299.798425, "relative_strength": 6.435438, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.810582, "energy": 52.015378, "activity_lines": [ 367.430003, 367.081819, 359.094047, 353.196021 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 369.049988, "volume": 5194, "typical_volume": 9858.3, "trend": 348.21, "fair_value": 300.339453, "relative_strength": 5.115887, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.551169, "energy": 42.902182, "activity_lines": [ 367.723332, 367.767271, 360.898808, 354.619139 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 378.299988, "volume": 13072, "typical_volume": 9929.7, "trend": 349.489999, "fair_value": 300.943798, "relative_strength": 5.031785, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.521429, "energy": 57.660153, "activity_lines": [ 370.963328, 369.902724, 363.385235, 356.560428 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }