{ "ticker": { "uuid": "26d996f0-934e-412e-9147-c6d1d6579110", "symbol": "MSFT", "name": "Microsoft Corporation", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 49.783, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 54.735, "architecture_energy": 64.18, "architecture_maturity": 20.233, "architecture_confidence": 75.567, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.8, "rotation_up": 67.72, "upward_expansion": 54.53, "deceleration": 30.92, "rotation_down": 21.55, "downward_expansion": 24.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 7721.878027, 7314.732156, 7202.168506, 7137.38006 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 8588.089844, "trend_reference": 7139.387386, "distance_from_trend": 0.202917, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7773.175343, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.104837, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.188324, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.241608, "excess_performance": 0.296274, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.202917, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074011, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.104837, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.173518, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.041883, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.295826, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.241608, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.107534, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 84691, "relative_activity": 1.555769, "balance": 2.107534, "dry_up": 1.458863, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060601, "annualized_volatility": 0.414134, "from_high_reference": -0.157503, "from_low_reference": 0.411762 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7139.387386, "fair_value_reference": 7773.175343, "structural_low": 6083.240121, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.04115, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.040995, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.053293, "worst_return": -0.146604, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.053382, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.092409, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.084266, "worst_return": -0.19103, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.089062, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.173692, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.002555, "worst_return": -0.180679, "sufficient": false }, { 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-52.895331, "energy": 38.122837, "activity_lines": [ 6802.464551, 6885.334925, 6974.948482, 7019.583292 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6693.680176, "volume": 25523, "typical_volume": 44657.65, "trend": 7153.3222, "fair_value": 7737.294891, "relative_strength": -19.279041, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.081652, "energy": 30.795393, "activity_lines": [ 6781.089323, 6828.319771, 6946.854322, 6985.575937 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8058.470215, "volume": 151424, "typical_volume": 51190.4, "trend": 7140.273942, "fair_value": 7753.174467, "relative_strength": -2.822827, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.393979, "energy": 21.730925, "activity_lines": [ 7212.835417, 7030.742907, 7051.57902, 7043.972583 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8588.089844, "volume": 84691, "typical_volume": 54436.75, "trend": 7139.387386, "fair_value": 7773.175343, "relative_strength": 4.188324, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 54.734662, "energy": 64.180482, "activity_lines": [ 7721.878027, 7314.732156, 7202.168506, 7137.38006 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }