{ "ticker": { "uuid": "26e0bc73-7e70-49d3-901e-71932280bd8a", "symbol": "FAN", "name": "Volution Group plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 63.488, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 33.581, "architecture_energy": 36.316, "architecture_maturity": 14.147, "architecture_confidence": 68.793, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.36, "rotation_up": 58.35, "upward_expansion": 44.19, "deceleration": 25.75, "rotation_down": 19.21, "downward_expansion": 21.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 645.666667, 630.763636, 622.185714, 622.788322 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 693.0, "trend_reference": 628.951797, "distance_from_trend": 0.101833, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 539.775759, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.283866, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.597164, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.079513, "excess_performance": 0.013234, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.101833, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004345, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.283866, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.087601, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.005972, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.081166, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.079513, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.510823, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3656963, "relative_activity": 1.721326, "balance": 1.510823, "dry_up": 1.518829, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070874, "annualized_volatility": 0.373736, "from_high_reference": -0.05062, "from_low_reference": 0.266997 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 628.951797, "fair_value_reference": 539.775759, "structural_low": 546.962686, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.016515, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.006097, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.189297, "worst_return": -0.181556, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.077775, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.037029, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.229355, "worst_return": -0.270256, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.032653, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.03864, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.143054, "worst_return": -0.215798, 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610.672727, 613.115981, 621.13051 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 599.0, "volume": 2280264, "typical_volume": 2026312.15, "trend": 628.279338, "fair_value": 533.208619, "relative_strength": -10.938233, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.022556, "energy": 21.635663, "activity_lines": [ 608.066667, 608.581818, 610.964661, 619.213654 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 620.0, "volume": 2069012, "typical_volume": 2009969.75, "trend": 628.214085, "fair_value": 534.875311, "relative_strength": -8.417526, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.729636, "energy": 13.271977, "activity_lines": [ 611.933333, 610.545455, 611.265497, 618.679503 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 635.0, "volume": 3951443, "typical_volume": 2125984.45, "trend": 628.015544, "fair_value": 536.451083, "relative_strength": -7.070726, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.557185, "energy": 5.595586, "activity_lines": [ 619.6, 615.309091, 613.370867, 619.117304 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 619.0, "volume": 3229613, "typical_volume": 2115729.95, "trend": 627.083681, "fair_value": 537.853818, "relative_strength": -10.105369, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.731341, "energy": 8.694935, "activity_lines": [ 620.533333, 616.363636, 614.318863, 618.535656 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 693.0, "volume": 3656963, "typical_volume": 2124503.0, "trend": 628.951797, "fair_value": 539.775759, "relative_strength": 0.597164, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.580611, "energy": 36.315798, "activity_lines": [ 645.666667, 630.763636, 622.185714, 622.788322 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }