{ "ticker": { "uuid": "26f09f1a-5ba5-47b2-b0c4-3c1d987dde2e", "symbol": "C38U", "name": "CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 62.294, "architecture_energy": 68.635, "architecture_maturity": 11.545, "architecture_confidence": 68.663, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.88, "rotation_up": 69.56, "upward_expansion": 88.67, "deceleration": 45.73, "rotation_down": 10.86, "downward_expansion": 15.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.464, 2.437455, 2.390015, 2.372933 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.46, "trend_reference": 2.355606, "distance_from_trend": 0.044317, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.975263, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.245403, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.401701, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.039866, "excess_performance": -0.114969, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.044317, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020177, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.245403, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034099, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.104017, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05636, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.039866, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.190343, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 119392798, "relative_activity": 1.052957, "balance": 1.190343, "dry_up": 1.166333, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028768, "annualized_volatility": 0.138755, "from_high_reference": -0.02719, "from_low_reference": 0.174043 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.355606, "fair_value_reference": 1.975263, "structural_low": 2.21, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.00718, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.000589, "regime_survival": 0.678571, "best_return": 0.078261, "worst_return": -0.061224, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.012605, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.02013, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.116088, "worst_return": -0.075472, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.023301, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.056689, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.158204, "worst_return": -0.149608, 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.44, "volume": 128537212, "typical_volume": 112767110.15, "trend": 2.344778, "fair_value": 1.964942, "relative_strength": -9.805115, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.434486, "energy": 69.43886, "activity_lines": [ 2.44, 2.401818, 2.366375, 2.356543 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.49, "volume": 144673800, "typical_volume": 113002250.15, "trend": 2.351175, "fair_value": 1.970179, "relative_strength": -8.427862, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.701229, "energy": 75.83844, "activity_lines": [ 2.46, 2.424182, 2.38007, 2.365913 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.46, "volume": 119392798, "typical_volume": 113388055.05, "trend": 2.355606, "fair_value": 1.975263, "relative_strength": -10.401701, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.293871, "energy": 68.635161, "activity_lines": [ 2.464, 2.437455, 2.390015, 2.372933 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }