{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2701b449-076a-430c-89c2-b90a10f7cb79", "symbol": "MRNO", "name": "Murano Global Investments PLC Ordinary Shares", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.996, "architecture_energy": 44.977, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 88.731, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.33, "rotation_up": 23.37, "upward_expansion": 5.84, "deceleration": 52.65, "rotation_down": 55.72, "downward_expansion": 81.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.21826, 0.236427, 0.284463, 0.355687 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.212, "trend_reference": 0.506303, "distance_from_trend": -0.581279, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.154772, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.970369, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -87.704511, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.794175, "excess_performance": -0.981628, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.581279, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.443894, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.970369, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000212, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.877045, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072245, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.794175, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 10.228058, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 492450, "relative_activity": 0.024209, "balance": 10.228058, "dry_up": 0.067697, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.605239, "annualized_volatility": 1.779267, "from_high_reference": -0.969186, "from_low_reference": 0.19403 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.506303, "fair_value_reference": 7.154772, "structural_low": 0.17755, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.108656, "positive_rate": 0.352941, "directional_follow_through": 0.647059, "median_excess_return": -0.105792, "regime_survival": 0.882353, "best_return": 1.534, "worst_return": -0.567288, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.50307, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.54998, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 1.15, "worst_return": -0.676206, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.219912, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.305947, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.731928, "worst_return": -0.884688, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.310769, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.329964, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.053271, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.080495, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.040092, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.094505, "active": false 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1057207, "typical_volume": 24739772.75, "trend": 0.56287, "fair_value": 7.29051, "relative_strength": -89.115851, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.860125, "energy": 50.782363, "activity_lines": [ 0.233993, 0.261011, 0.311904, 0.400102 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.213, "volume": 1864616, "typical_volume": 20369760.0, "trend": 0.55057, "fair_value": 7.222644, "relative_strength": -88.065161, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.453013, "energy": 46.167931, "activity_lines": [ 0.225627, 0.247575, 0.297126, 0.37753 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.212, "volume": 492450, "typical_volume": 20341927.2, "trend": 0.506303, "fair_value": 7.154772, "relative_strength": -87.704511, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.995894, "energy": 44.976685, "activity_lines": [ 0.21826, 0.236427, 0.284463, 0.355687 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }