{ "ticker": { "uuid": "270e0d04-4f63-45c9-a7bd-52589298f7a1", "symbol": "USFRN", "name": "Amundi Index Solutions - Amundi Floating Rate USD Corporate ESG - UCITS ETF DR - USD (C)", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 56.84, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 63.374, "architecture_energy": 57.909, "architecture_maturity": 71.363, "architecture_confidence": 59.665, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.51, "rotation_up": 51.46, "upward_expansion": 79.67, "deceleration": 68.54, "rotation_down": 28.56, "downward_expansion": 15.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 120.397999, 120.392544, 119.445095, 118.706752 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 119.739998, "trend_reference": 117.648, "distance_from_trend": 0.017782, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 115.591636, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.035888, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.188093, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.043031, "excess_performance": -0.12786, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.017782, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013956, "read": "Rising" 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113.720001, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": 0.001759, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.02794, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.032368, "worst_return": -0.129906, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.021221, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.028793, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.057904, "worst_return": -0.139257, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.008938, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.099664, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.101827, "worst_return": -0.127961, 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114.608559, "relative_strength": -9.681125, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.596106, "energy": 24.006371, "activity_lines": [ 116.902001, 116.839091, 116.536096, 116.238807 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "close": 118.110001, "volume": 1593, "typical_volume": 3490.5, "trend": 115.969667, "fair_value": 114.67061, "relative_strength": -9.866866, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.517864, "energy": 53.844216, "activity_lines": [ 117.404667, 117.030182, 116.725667, 116.34342 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "close": 117.760002, "volume": 711, "typical_volume": 3446.35, "trend": 116.028667, "fair_value": 114.730739, "relative_strength": -10.743, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.693666, "energy": 55.155542, "activity_lines": [ 117.614668, 117.16691, 116.865001, 116.458925 ] }, { 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"direction": 85.092505, "energy": 86.940313, "activity_lines": [ 119.063332, 118.326909, 117.649571, 117.065613 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 120.739998, "volume": 671, "typical_volume": 3231.85, "trend": 116.543333, "fair_value": 115.045482, "relative_strength": -9.286237, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.677502, "energy": 93.113402, "activity_lines": [ 119.729998, 118.884908, 118.00119, 117.346946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 120.419998, "volume": 784, "typical_volume": 3233.2, "trend": 116.707, "fair_value": 115.126764, "relative_strength": -11.838649, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.10491, "energy": 90.861755, "activity_lines": [ 120.114665, 119.288908, 118.294047, 117.597054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 120.720001, "volume": 2109, "typical_volume": 3282.25, "trend": 116.91, "fair_value": 115.232405, "relative_strength": -10.93466, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.75511, "energy": 91.436776, "activity_lines": [ 120.421999, 119.677454, 118.586333, 117.855957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 120.690002, "volume": 89, "typical_volume": 3077.9, "trend": 117.104667, "fair_value": 115.329521, "relative_strength": -9.369956, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.08918, "energy": 89.221066, "activity_lines": [ 120.604, 119.989636, 118.849666, 118.099828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 121.349998, "volume": 6689, "typical_volume": 3287.35, "trend": 117.333667, "fair_value": 115.424392, "relative_strength": -8.448025, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.466123, "energy": 91.855944, "activity_lines": [ 120.883333, 120.341817, 119.148333, 118.37372 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 120.279999, "volume": 807, "typical_volume": 3237.85, "trend": 117.524333, "fair_value": 115.512213, "relative_strength": -9.521167, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.87499, "energy": 65.09824, "activity_lines": [ 120.715333, 120.435999, 119.326381, 118.563806 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 119.739998, "volume": 1849, "typical_volume": 2626.95, "trend": 117.648, "fair_value": 115.591636, "relative_strength": -12.188093, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.373873, "energy": 57.909301, "activity_lines": [ 120.397999, 120.392544, 119.445095, 118.706752 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }