{ "ticker": { "uuid": "27100500-2f60-4feb-ae34-e2b79d1726a6", "symbol": "PBB", "name": "Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 70.413, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 18.227, "architecture_energy": 13.535, "architecture_maturity": 20.404, "architecture_confidence": 69.066, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.75, "rotation_up": 39.28, "upward_expansion": 40.24, "deceleration": 38.09, "rotation_down": 26.43, "downward_expansion": 12.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.466667, 3.454109, 3.432276, 3.394378 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.442, "trend_reference": 3.459467, "distance_from_trend": -0.005049, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.898651, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.297358, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -20.382064, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.187824, "excess_performance": -0.252464, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.005049, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072595, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.297358, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.073315, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.203821, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.073064, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.187824, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.353105, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1319470, "relative_activity": 0.896031, "balance": 2.353105, "dry_up": 0.704144, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.077683, "annualized_volatility": 0.505117, "from_high_reference": -0.398252, "from_low_reference": 0.270111 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.459467, "fair_value_reference": 4.898651, "structural_low": 2.71, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.005474, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": -0.022749, "regime_survival": 0.473684, "best_return": 0.16741, "worst_return": -0.13615, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.015587, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.032654, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.122697, "worst_return": -0.280808, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.099381, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.104565, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.235091, "worst_return": -0.288103, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 2.775705, "energy": 3.747608, "activity_lines": [ 3.473067, 3.465236, 3.390181, 3.407084 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.49, "volume": 801003, "typical_volume": 1846623.05, "trend": 3.5162, "fair_value": 4.947574, "relative_strength": -17.156137, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 2.640736, "energy": 9.342779, "activity_lines": [ 3.4876, 3.468109, 3.410695, 3.403961 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.418, "volume": 927837, "typical_volume": 1637746.85, "trend": 3.492333, "fair_value": 4.921772, "relative_strength": -19.697109, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.132348, "energy": 7.566187, "activity_lines": [ 3.478667, 3.458036, 3.421905, 3.397626 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.442, "volume": 1319470, "typical_volume": 1472571.9, "trend": 3.459467, "fair_value": 4.898651, "relative_strength": -20.382064, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.226682, "energy": 13.534546, "activity_lines": [ 3.466667, 3.454109, 3.432276, 3.394378 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }