{ "ticker": { "uuid": "27102535-c9e4-4f26-8562-66d5fe9d12ce", "symbol": "KAV", "name": "Kavango Resources Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 92.866, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.962, "architecture_energy": 49.53, "architecture_maturity": 13.338, "architecture_confidence": 93.894, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.88, "rotation_up": 15.56, "upward_expansion": 9.45, "deceleration": 41.77, "rotation_down": 61.16, "downward_expansion": 85.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.00685, 0.007045, 0.007518, 0.007744 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.007, "trend_reference": 0.007925, "distance_from_trend": -0.116719, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.008733, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.198473, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.219248, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.176471, "excess_performance": -0.227706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.116719, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009554, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.198473, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.155425, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.222192, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117315, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.176471, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.827446, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2403028, "relative_activity": 0.618635, "balance": 0.827446, "dry_up": 0.962967, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.154725, "annualized_volatility": 0.455621, "from_high_reference": -0.416667, "from_low_reference": 0.272727 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.007925, "fair_value_reference": 0.008733, "structural_low": 0.00635, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.014912, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.010621, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.328125, "worst_return": -0.303922, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.121212, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.114077, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.62069, "worst_return": -0.606557, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.176471, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.190109, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.454545, "worst_return": -0.607143, "sufficient": true }, { 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"2026-07-10", "close": 0.007, "volume": 2539473, "typical_volume": 4942266.4, "trend": 0.007925, "fair_value": 0.008712, "relative_strength": -23.60691, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.515666, "energy": 43.490004, "activity_lines": [ 0.0073, 0.007645, 0.007962, 0.008035 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.00675, "volume": 357342, "typical_volume": 4167499.35, "trend": 0.00795, "fair_value": 0.008719, "relative_strength": -25.95892, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.22958, "energy": 56.544022, "activity_lines": [ 0.007033, 0.007441, 0.00783, 0.007959 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.00675, "volume": 6230790, "typical_volume": 3921923.4, "trend": 0.00795, "fair_value": 0.008722, "relative_strength": -25.801039, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.12313, "energy": 65.057926, "activity_lines": [ 0.006867, 0.007268, 0.007707, 0.007882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.00675, "volume": 5971040, "typical_volume": 4140502.3, "trend": 0.007933, "fair_value": 0.008725, "relative_strength": -25.703495, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.552219, "energy": 62.065697, "activity_lines": [ 0.0068, 0.007123, 0.007595, 0.007804 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.007, "volume": 2403028, "typical_volume": 3884400.85, "trend": 0.007925, "fair_value": 0.008733, "relative_strength": -22.219248, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.96223, "energy": 49.530184, "activity_lines": [ 0.00685, 0.007045, 0.007518, 0.007744 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }