{ "ticker": { "uuid": "27141682-a79e-41b2-8f33-711fcc243546", "symbol": "600380", "name": "Joincare Pharmaceutical Group Industry Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -27.146, "architecture_energy": 20.333, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 59.723, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.69, "rotation_up": 32.2, "upward_expansion": 17.98, "deceleration": 46.81, "rotation_down": 19.01, "downward_expansion": 51.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.2, 10.049143, 10.087203, 10.323658 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 10.26, "trend_reference": 10.701694, "distance_from_trend": -0.041273, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.274795, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.090006, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.737549, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.120823, "excess_performance": -0.077619, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.041273, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064334, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.090006, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007093, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.097375, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.086783, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.120823, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.921527, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 76042465, "relative_activity": 1.256428, "balance": 0.921527, "dry_up": 1.493027, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048951, "annualized_volatility": 0.179837, "from_high_reference": -0.277973, "from_low_reference": 0.105603 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.701694, "fair_value_reference": 11.274795, "structural_low": 9.28, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.007581, "positive_rate": 0.541667, "directional_follow_through": 0.458333, "median_excess_return": 0.010886, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.200202, "worst_return": -0.065559, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.028462, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.004518, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.180159, "worst_return": -0.113205, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.051523, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.010941, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.164757, "worst_return": -0.149378, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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32.161152, "activity_lines": [ 9.980726, 9.88289, 10.139644, 10.441642 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.05, "volume": 89622119, "typical_volume": 58236955.95, "trend": 10.793028, "fair_value": 11.294698, "relative_strength": -9.669847, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.85289, "energy": 24.861909, "activity_lines": [ 10.05, 9.913124, 10.104021, 10.389963 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.25, "volume": 77078158, "typical_volume": 59215854.25, "trend": 10.744694, "fair_value": 11.284721, "relative_strength": -7.858846, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.455905, "energy": 22.975366, "activity_lines": [ 10.155333, 9.983461, 10.092874, 10.354929 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.26, "volume": 76042465, "typical_volume": 60522718.7, "trend": 10.701694, "fair_value": 11.274795, "relative_strength": -9.737549, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.145522, "energy": 20.333426, "activity_lines": [ 10.2, 10.049143, 10.087203, 10.323658 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }