{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "2715b414-640f-44e1-8f0b-3321e67bc072",
    "symbol": "AEDAS",
    "name": "Aedas Homes, S.A.",
    "exchange": "MCE",
    "country": "ES",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^IBEX",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -80.866,
    "architecture_energy": 79.827,
    "architecture_maturity": 16.786,
    "architecture_confidence": 76.882,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 18.08,
        "rotation_up": 9.27,
        "upward_expansion": 17.02,
        "deceleration": 38.38,
        "rotation_down": 79.87,
        "downward_expansion": 92.69
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        21.683333,
        22.135454,
        22.630476,
        22.852365
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.833333
    },
    "latest_close": 21.200001,
    "trend_reference": 23.165,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.084826,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 19.792956,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.071088,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -20.09602,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.114823,
    "excess_performance": -0.239253,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.084826,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.007285,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.071088,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.164669,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.20096,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.116701,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.114823,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.970042,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 8944,
      "relative_activity": 0.221192,
      "balance": 0.970042,
      "dry_up": 0.266604,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.0332,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.130352,
      "from_high_reference": -0.120332,
      "from_low_reference": 0.014354
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 23.165,
      "fair_value_reference": 19.792956,
      "structural_low": 21.15,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 18,
        "median_return": 0.001179,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.444444,
        "median_excess_return": -0.014482,
        "regime_survival": 0.777778,
        "best_return": 0.159921,
        "worst_return": -0.172727,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.001202,
        "positive_rate": 0.571429,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.428571,
        "median_excess_return": -0.00875,
        "regime_survival": 0.428571,
        "best_return": 0.399164,
        "worst_return": -0.245262,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.01418,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.087997,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.413839,
        "worst_return": -0.315049,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.043981,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
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        "regime_survival": 0.666667,
        "best_return": 0.52565,
        "worst_return": -0.368559,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2023-04-14",
        "end": "2023-04-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.001437,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2023-05-05",
        "end": "2023-08-18",
        "tenure": "Established",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2023-08-25",
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        "return": 0.047273,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "tenure": "Extended",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-11-29",
        "end": "2025-01-03",
        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "end": "2025-06-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.063462,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "end": "2025-07-11",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.025673,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "end": "2025-11-21",
        "tenure": "Established",
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
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        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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        "typical_volume": 187372.15,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "typical_volume": 177452.85,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 179138.8,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 155294.35,
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        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "fair_value": 19.474494,
        "relative_strength": -14.407462,
        "stage": 3,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 73593.9,
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        "fair_value": 19.535501,
        "relative_strength": -16.918417,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -85.061826,
        "energy": 79.029182,
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          22.596666,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 22.549999,
        "volume": 8726,
        "typical_volume": 67233.7,
        "trend": 23.393333,
        "fair_value": 19.600568,
        "relative_strength": -12.243791,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -60.435455,
        "energy": 71.614857,
        "activity_lines": [
          22.49,
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          23.040714,
          23.183548
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 22.1,
        "volume": 11987,
        "typical_volume": 60581.35,
        "trend": 23.333333,
        "fair_value": 19.666338,
        "relative_strength": -15.164609,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -69.893983,
        "energy": 75.4873,
        "activity_lines": [
          22.296666,
          22.673636,
          22.943095,
          23.100107
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 21.549999,
        "volume": 13464,
        "typical_volume": 43893.65,
        "trend": 23.256667,
        "fair_value": 19.7325,
        "relative_strength": -17.611736,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -79.651281,
        "energy": 80.970655,
        "activity_lines": [
          22.006666,
          22.42,
          22.799762,
          22.985053
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 21.200001,
        "volume": 8944,
        "typical_volume": 40435.45,
        "trend": 23.165,
        "fair_value": 19.792956,
        "relative_strength": -20.09602,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -80.866239,
        "energy": 79.827026,
        "activity_lines": [
          21.683333,
          22.135454,
          22.630476,
          22.852365
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}