{ "ticker": { "uuid": "271f5c1e-9321-4464-b812-db08cef96e68", "symbol": "002302", "name": "China West Construction Group Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.698, "architecture_energy": 45.01, "architecture_maturity": 99.664, "architecture_confidence": 65.089, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.16, "rotation_up": 27.46, "upward_expansion": 19.75, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 42.23, "downward_expansion": 69.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.614667, 4.568545, 4.823619, 5.103484 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.86, "trend_reference": 5.464333, "distance_from_trend": -0.110596, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.104964, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.203927, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.931454, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.19802, "excess_performance": -0.20542, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.110596, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098791, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.203927, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.102814, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.219315, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048056, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.19802, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.561362, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 69371561, "relative_activity": 1.848536, "balance": 0.561362, "dry_up": 1.203415, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064894, "annualized_volatility": 0.257541, "from_high_reference": -0.417964, "from_low_reference": 0.146226 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.464333, "fair_value_reference": 6.104964, "structural_low": 4.24, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.003413, "positive_rate": 0.484848, "directional_follow_through": 0.515152, "median_excess_return": 0.008713, "regime_survival": 0.757576, "best_return": 0.176923, "worst_return": -0.141935, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.05, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": 0.025333, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.478261, "worst_return": -0.165766, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.003713, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.05859, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.273663, "worst_return": -0.258013, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.097693, "energy": 84.743225, "activity_lines": [ 4.463333, 4.629636, 5.002429, 5.288452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.33, "volume": 42825008, "typical_volume": 43896648.3, "trend": 5.560667, "fair_value": 6.133076, "relative_strength": -29.288164, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.850431, "energy": 69.153186, "activity_lines": [ 4.412667, 4.540909, 4.906667, 5.205226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.63, "volume": 34473889, "typical_volume": 40202796.95, "trend": 5.506333, "fair_value": 6.118743, "relative_strength": -22.442177, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.552915, "energy": 62.464583, "activity_lines": [ 4.483333, 4.527636, 4.849762, 5.145183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.86, "volume": 69371561, "typical_volume": 37527832.15, "trend": 5.464333, "fair_value": 6.104964, "relative_strength": -21.931454, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.697843, "energy": 45.009661, "activity_lines": [ 4.614667, 4.568545, 4.823619, 5.103484 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }