{ "ticker": { "uuid": "27212863-ecb0-4f34-bd8a-35147e00e447", "symbol": "BCDF", "name": "LISTED FUND TRUST HORIZON KINETICS BLOCKCHAIN DEVELOPMENT", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 76.175, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 38.844, "architecture_energy": 33.327, "architecture_maturity": 15.926, "architecture_confidence": 53.092, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.67, "rotation_up": 59.66, "upward_expansion": 43.78, "deceleration": 48.63, "rotation_down": 16.63, "downward_expansion": 9.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.031053, 31.457856, 31.603503, 31.570168 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 32.825, "trend_reference": 31.533503, "distance_from_trend": 0.040956, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.230462, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.205451, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.95503, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.069988, "excess_performance": -0.055636, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.040956, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00843, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.205451, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039776, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.05955, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007038, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.069988, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.661612, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1561, "relative_activity": 0.180275, "balance": 0.661612, "dry_up": 0.357172, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030636, "annualized_volatility": 0.191649, "from_high_reference": -0.094982, "from_low_reference": 0.131506 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.533503, "fair_value_reference": 27.230462, "structural_low": 29.01, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.004693, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.031723, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.078297, "worst_return": -0.075072, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.064062, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.002798, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.096913, "worst_return": 0.031212, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.13115, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.006729, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.13115, "worst_return": 0.13115, "sufficient": false }, { 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"volume": 2216, "typical_volume": 10286.65, "trend": 31.347703, "fair_value": 26.95529, "relative_strength": -9.591192, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.265429, "energy": 46.970994, "activity_lines": [ 30.587547, 31.033835, 31.458308, 31.441431 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 31.2977, "volume": 5665, "typical_volume": 10210.45, "trend": 31.389803, "fair_value": 27.019773, "relative_strength": -7.50847, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.770077, "energy": 32.456674, "activity_lines": [ 30.800593, 30.990122, 31.43463, 31.438205 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 31.4384, "volume": 1998, "typical_volume": 9280.65, "trend": 31.419083, "fair_value": 27.083426, "relative_strength": -6.263671, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.708068, "energy": 7.993283, "activity_lines": [ 31.08536, 30.999035, 31.427585, 31.44134 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.065, "volume": 3147, "typical_volume": 8979.75, "trend": 31.474087, "fair_value": 27.153775, "relative_strength": -5.173505, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.551614, "energy": 17.563504, "activity_lines": [ 31.517193, 31.143855, 31.481768, 31.483012 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.825, "volume": 1561, "typical_volume": 8659.0, "trend": 31.533503, "fair_value": 27.230462, "relative_strength": -5.95503, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 38.843983, "energy": 33.326978, "activity_lines": [ 32.031053, 31.457856, 31.603503, 31.570168 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }