{ "ticker": { "uuid": "272d333b-2efe-48de-894d-74397eb3a6bf", "symbol": "JEDI", "name": "VanEck Space Innovators UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 48.772, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -24.648, "architecture_energy": 50.051, "architecture_maturity": 6.467, "architecture_confidence": 68.131, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.83, "rotation_up": 14.83, "upward_expansion": 24.86, "deceleration": 50.89, "rotation_down": 65.76, "downward_expansion": 52.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 72.258666, 75.988546, 82.819334, 82.018603 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 77.25, "trend_reference": 79.708001, "distance_from_trend": -0.030838, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 40.332212, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.915343, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.158546, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.143597, "excess_performance": -0.027294, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.030838, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.121011, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.915343, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.61809, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.011585, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.420359, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.143597, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.269672, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 114934, "relative_activity": 0.770542, "balance": 1.269672, "dry_up": 0.980336, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.137287, "annualized_volatility": 0.5692, "from_high_reference": -0.362939, "from_low_reference": 0.945599 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 79.708001, "fair_value_reference": 40.332212, "structural_low": 64.099998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.188037, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.058076, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.188037, "worst_return": 0.188037, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.527157, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.406757, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.527157, "worst_return": 0.527157, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.858714, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.698125, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.858714, "worst_return": 0.858714, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 2.080784, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 1.722557, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.080784, "worst_return": 2.080784, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.042871, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.044376, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.547243, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.121389, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.122379, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.02474, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.073764, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.228077, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.238106, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.129309, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": 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"modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.108495, "energy": 36.967614, "activity_lines": [ 77.670669, 84.343274, 86.487239, 83.471055 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 69.639999, "volume": 133243, "typical_volume": 144517.5, "trend": 79.063001, "fair_value": 39.689199, "relative_strength": -6.772343, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.944626, "energy": 47.909392, "activity_lines": [ 74.335335, 80.647456, 85.07762, 82.88499 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 67.739998, "volume": 139674, "typical_volume": 147479.55, "trend": 79.356001, "fair_value": 39.979904, "relative_strength": -10.256508, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.943719, "energy": 58.834991, "activity_lines": [ 71.400667, 77.092728, 83.48881, 82.154474 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 77.25, "volume": 114934, "typical_volume": 149159.9, "trend": 79.708001, "fair_value": 40.332212, "relative_strength": -1.158546, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.648396, "energy": 50.051138, "activity_lines": [ 72.258666, 75.988546, 82.819334, 82.018603 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }