{ "ticker": { "uuid": "272edb22-3f91-4c8a-aff9-562bff0150f2", "symbol": "TBN", "name": "Tamboran Resources Corporation", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 59.523, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -9.849, "architecture_energy": 7.961, "architecture_maturity": 14.965, "architecture_confidence": 58.141, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 67.44, "rotation_up": 26.93, "upward_expansion": 22.63, "deceleration": 70.27, "rotation_down": 34.87, "downward_expansion": 29.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.214, 33.15, 34.150905, 34.230043 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 33.61, "trend_reference": 33.447667, "distance_from_trend": 0.004853, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.072753, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.340499, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.820117, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.174354, "excess_performance": 0.048729, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.004853, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.092454, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.340499, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.152196, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.018201, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.199282, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.174354, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.68718, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 473639, "relative_activity": 0.453811, "balance": 0.68718, "dry_up": 0.618914, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.107357, "annualized_volatility": 0.663283, "from_high_reference": -0.356254, "from_low_reference": 0.719182 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.447667, "fair_value_reference": 25.072753, "structural_low": 27.31, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.287303, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.118126, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027493, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-06-28", "close": 22.5, "volume": 721236, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": 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"typical_volume": 1007257.85, "trend": 32.764, "fair_value": 24.83357, "relative_strength": 0.792405, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.851466, "energy": 48.098714, "activity_lines": [ 31.724667, 33.324364, 34.574381, 34.09686 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 34.19, "volume": 698950, "typical_volume": 1018124.5, "trend": 33.021333, "fair_value": 24.919409, "relative_strength": 9.520245, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.019067, "energy": 35.671327, "activity_lines": [ 32.381333, 33.319818, 34.498857, 34.18886 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.25, "volume": 760005, "typical_volume": 1039770.3, "trend": 33.200333, "fair_value": 24.995142, "relative_strength": 4.781865, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.516849, "energy": 16.996136, "activity_lines": [ 32.779333, 33.186182, 34.318619, 34.203613 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.61, "volume": 473639, "typical_volume": 1043692.9, "trend": 33.447667, "fair_value": 25.072753, "relative_strength": 1.820117, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.848933, "energy": 7.961132, "activity_lines": [ 33.214, 33.15, 34.150905, 34.230043 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }