{ "ticker": { "uuid": "27310fab-9ac4-4b32-a527-f4b3826801d8", "symbol": "G1C", "name": "Group One Capital Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.425, "architecture_energy": 68.448, "architecture_maturity": 91.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.66, "rotation_up": 29.91, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 61.0, "rotation_down": 59.44, "downward_expansion": 87.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0514, 0.052164, 0.059581, 0.067168 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.055, "trend_reference": 0.078467, "distance_from_trend": -0.299065, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.044435, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.237758, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -36.991192, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.444444, "excess_performance": -0.50815, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.299065, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073593, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.237758, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.607279, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.369912, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.201418, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.444444, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.412244, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21842, "relative_activity": 2.187383, "balance": 0.412244, "dry_up": 2.346439, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058741, "annualized_volatility": 0.563758, "from_high_reference": -0.645161, "from_low_reference": 0.145833 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.078467, "fair_value_reference": 0.044435, "structural_low": 0.048, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.176471, "directional_follow_through": 0.294118, "median_excess_return": -0.007157, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.969697, "worst_return": -0.384615, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.045455, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.059262, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 4.2, "worst_return": -0.230769, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.006818, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.016489, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 3.4, "worst_return": -0.375, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 2.55, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 2.456413, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 5.6, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.5, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.4, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 11.858193, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.461538, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.115942, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.151515, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.269231, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.278481, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.098361, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.022, "volume": 32258, "typical_volume": 8751.25, "trend": 0.027, "fair_value": 0.030788, "relative_strength": -25.797266, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", 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"relative_strength": -44.806768, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.640975, "energy": 93.20879, "activity_lines": [ 0.051267, 0.056164, 0.065062, 0.073062 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.05, "volume": 22645, "typical_volume": 9083.05, "trend": 0.081867, "fair_value": 0.044025, "relative_strength": -42.412373, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.332871, "energy": 86.89047, "activity_lines": [ 0.050267, 0.054127, 0.06289, 0.070963 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.049, "volume": 49229, "typical_volume": 11494.85, "trend": 0.080967, "fair_value": 0.044211, "relative_strength": -43.35402, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.763921, "energy": 71.478596, "activity_lines": [ 0.049667, 0.052364, 0.060838, 0.068843 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.055, "volume": 21842, "typical_volume": 9985.45, "trend": 0.078467, "fair_value": 0.044435, "relative_strength": -36.991192, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.424523, "energy": 68.448195, "activity_lines": [ 0.0514, 0.052164, 0.059581, 0.067168 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }