{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2734d6d2-877e-48c1-8212-8df270991a87", "symbol": "LSTA", "name": "Lisata Therapeutics Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 85.319, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -91.942, "architecture_energy": 96.908, "architecture_maturity": 26.0, "architecture_confidence": 69.851, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.98, "rotation_up": 8.01, "upward_expansion": 22.0, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 87.17, "downward_expansion": 97.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.648667, 2.341364, 2.818024, 3.207968 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.06, "trend_reference": 3.5945, "distance_from_trend": -0.705105, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.847603, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.627757, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -69.449497, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.76652, "excess_performance": -0.953973, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.705105, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075554, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.627757, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.708137, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.694495, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.579527, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.76652, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.495621, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 493595, "relative_activity": 0.969332, "balance": 2.495621, "dry_up": 1.311668, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.43955, "annualized_volatility": 1.441115, "from_high_reference": -0.790927, "from_low_reference": 0.073418 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.5945, "fair_value_reference": 2.847603, "structural_low": 0.9875, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": -0.034299, "positive_rate": 0.361111, "directional_follow_through": 0.638889, "median_excess_return": -0.014111, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 1.115741, "worst_return": -0.394058, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.073643, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.056281, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 1.285714, "worst_return": -0.469843, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.032946, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.156477, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.602041, "worst_return": -0.649676, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.400457, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.414824, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.302752, "worst_return": -0.6194, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.000467, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.090302, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.170581, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.303896, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003799, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.059322, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.187833, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.102041, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.126521, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", 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"date": "2026-07-10", "close": 3.27, "volume": 135329, "typical_volume": 466491.2, "trend": 3.616, "fair_value": 2.881162, "relative_strength": -8.934047, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.001342, "energy": 17.093605, "activity_lines": [ 3.356667, 3.349273, 3.51919, 3.67572 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.595, "volume": 460066, "typical_volume": 473594.2, "trend": 3.667167, "fair_value": 2.882027, "relative_strength": 4.200808, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.056697, "energy": 15.985553, "activity_lines": [ 3.419, 3.401091, 3.499524, 3.674366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.67, "volume": 866560, "typical_volume": 496611.8, "trend": 3.657167, "fair_value": 2.87254, "relative_strength": -50.362367, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -90.692241, "energy": 83.900181, "activity_lines": [ 2.837333, 3.094818, 3.298929, 3.545516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.99, "volume": 851443, "typical_volume": 504405.4, "trend": 3.624833, "fair_value": 2.858308, "relative_strength": -70.378892, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -95.448356, "energy": 97.152892, "activity_lines": [ 2.152333, 2.692182, 3.045524, 3.373441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.06, "volume": 493595, "typical_volume": 509211.3, "trend": 3.5945, "fair_value": 2.847603, "relative_strength": -69.449497, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -91.941695, "energy": 96.907923, "activity_lines": [ 1.648667, 2.341364, 2.818024, 3.207968 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }