{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2737e71d-cc01-4939-8173-533ddede347d", "symbol": "V3M", "name": "Metech International Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 64.804, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 50.567, "architecture_energy": 54.395, "architecture_maturity": 4.779, "architecture_confidence": 75.199, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.96, "rotation_up": 63.21, "upward_expansion": 85.02, "deceleration": 45.88, "rotation_down": 16.52, "downward_expansion": 16.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.043533, 0.042036, 0.039919, 0.03883 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.038, "trend_reference": 0.037633, "distance_from_trend": 0.009743, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.035462, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.071584, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.225057, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.085714, "excess_performance": -0.069121, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.009743, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04731, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.071584, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034857, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.112251, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.145483, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.085714, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.236842, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 48800, "relative_activity": 1.086376, "balance": 3.236842, "dry_up": 1.528272, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.190283, "annualized_volatility": 1.102814, "from_high_reference": -0.269231, "from_low_reference": 0.357143 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.037633, "fair_value_reference": 0.035462, "structural_low": 0.03, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.08, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": 0.038388, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.436782, "worst_return": -0.571429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.110355, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.171401, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.698718, "worst_return": -0.395833, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.008333, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.155142, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.442308, "worst_return": -0.404762, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.071429, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.4, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.181818, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.108108, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.114286, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.258065, "active": 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0.036925 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 0.033, "volume": 4400, "typical_volume": 35270.0, "trend": 0.0366, "fair_value": 0.03559, "relative_strength": -16.629984, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.47211, "energy": 25.613582, "activity_lines": [ 0.0384, 0.037618, 0.036986, 0.036699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.04, "volume": 2000, "typical_volume": 32690.0, "trend": 0.036967, "fair_value": 0.03559, "relative_strength": -0.434612, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.59623, "energy": 26.583467, "activity_lines": [ 0.038933, 0.038145, 0.037343, 0.036918 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.035, "volume": 30300, "typical_volume": 34205.0, "trend": 0.036667, "fair_value": 0.035468, "relative_strength": -16.111886, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.902967, "energy": 11.907474, "activity_lines": [ 0.0374, 0.037618, 0.037181, 0.036791 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.046, "volume": 177500, "typical_volume": 43065.0, "trend": 0.0369, "fair_value": 0.035455, "relative_strength": 10.313963, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.537127, "energy": 27.997966, "activity_lines": [ 0.04, 0.039182, 0.038048, 0.037394 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.048, "volume": 5100, "typical_volume": 40325.0, "trend": 0.037267, "fair_value": 0.035474, "relative_strength": 14.398929, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.075101, "energy": 56.924497, "activity_lines": [ 0.0428, 0.040964, 0.039033, 0.03811 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.048, "volume": 43200, "typical_volume": 42480.0, "trend": 0.037567, "fair_value": 0.035481, "relative_strength": 13.343379, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.825204, "energy": 63.450358, "activity_lines": [ 0.045333, 0.042564, 0.039976, 0.038802 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.038, "volume": 48800, "typical_volume": 44920.0, "trend": 0.037633, "fair_value": 0.035462, "relative_strength": -11.225057, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.566904, "energy": 54.394551, "activity_lines": [ 0.043533, 0.042036, 0.039919, 0.03883 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }