{ "ticker": { "uuid": "273b9d76-257c-4f45-89c4-4980aeb1bf13", "symbol": "VPV", "name": "Invesco Pennsylvania Value Municipal Income Trust", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 57.477, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 41.131, "architecture_energy": 22.617, "architecture_maturity": 51.03, "architecture_confidence": 79.563, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.91, "rotation_up": 28.3, "upward_expansion": 56.62, "deceleration": 87.86, "rotation_down": 32.21, "downward_expansion": 20.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.982234, 11.038346, 10.991914, 10.876803 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 11.16, "trend_reference": 10.731489, "distance_from_trend": 0.03993, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.411849, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.185739, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.970234, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.072928, "excess_performance": -0.052697, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.03993, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032383, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.185739, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016221, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.039702, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027914, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.072928, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.173403, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 138820, "relative_activity": 0.939342, "balance": 1.173403, "dry_up": 0.760822, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026759, "annualized_volatility": 0.13135, "from_high_reference": -0.021227, "from_low_reference": 0.203189 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.731489, "fair_value_reference": 9.411849, "structural_low": 10.04036, "invalidation": "A 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"orange", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.000322, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.050833, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.065679, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.042718, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.006917, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.012812, "active": false }, { 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"relative_strength": -1.868233, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.738316, "energy": 45.825702, "activity_lines": [ 11.165652, 11.11661, 10.932829, 10.801214 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.99, "volume": 81174, "typical_volume": 149080.5, "trend": 10.648079, "fair_value": 9.357056, "relative_strength": -1.777176, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.652017, "energy": 36.564265, "activity_lines": [ 11.104976, 11.104089, 10.954129, 10.82541 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.84, "volume": 81418, "typical_volume": 147294.35, "trend": 10.675548, "fair_value": 9.374202, "relative_strength": -2.537414, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.377552, "energy": 22.651382, "activity_lines": [ 11.010709, 11.06479, 10.958907, 10.837792 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.82, "volume": 148338, "typical_volume": 147143.75, "trend": 10.69978, "fair_value": 9.391803, "relative_strength": -3.686353, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.996088, "energy": 19.218366, "activity_lines": [ 10.92935, 11.020876, 10.959747, 10.847112 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.16, "volume": 138820, "typical_volume": 147784.25, "trend": 10.731489, "fair_value": 9.411849, "relative_strength": -3.970234, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.130577, "energy": 22.616649, "activity_lines": [ 10.982234, 11.038346, 10.991914, 10.876803 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }