{ "ticker": { "uuid": "273c2dd7-764c-4421-9126-092c879b86bb", "symbol": "IN-FF17", "name": "INVESCO MARKETS II", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.78, "architecture_energy": 63.016, "architecture_maturity": 95.0, "architecture_confidence": 57.826, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.22, "rotation_up": 27.97, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 44.33, "downward_expansion": 65.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.348, 28.083636, 712.303333, 1205.459785 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 28.68, "trend_reference": 1771.810333, "distance_from_trend": -0.983813, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2337.98375, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.987733, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.821374, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.989258, "excess_performance": -1.018159, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.983813, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.332844, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.987733, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.016542, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.988214, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.750265, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.989258, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.702714, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 769259, "relative_activity": 1.539697, "balance": 1.702714, "dry_up": 1.328425, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 7.439652, "annualized_volatility": 6.344697, "from_high_reference": -0.989997, "from_low_reference": 0.065379 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1771.810333, "fair_value_reference": 2337.98375, "structural_low": 26.92, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.022615, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.002034, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.041798, "worst_return": 0.003028, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.989215, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.971679, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.989215, "worst_return": -0.989215, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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"trend": 2037.839333, "fair_value": 2406.585941, "relative_strength": -98.931778, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.992808, "energy": 86.08996, "activity_lines": [ 27.906667, 312.897273, 1156.557857, 1577.245054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.06, "volume": 483947, "typical_volume": 511691.4, "trend": 1949.308, "fair_value": 2383.267059, "relative_strength": -98.931155, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.630347, "energy": 67.545034, "activity_lines": [ 27.988667, 170.050364, 996.129381, 1447.581871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.39, "volume": 620617, "typical_volume": 504522.05, "trend": 1860.654333, "fair_value": 2360.404175, "relative_strength": -98.861212, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.223658, "energy": 66.89996, "activity_lines": [ 28.154667, 75.207818, 848.055857, 1323.651677 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.68, "volume": 769259, "typical_volume": 499617.15, "trend": 1771.810333, "fair_value": 2337.98375, "relative_strength": -98.821374, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.780295, "energy": 63.015903, "activity_lines": [ 28.348, 28.083636, 712.303333, 1205.459785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }