{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2743f92a-8699-4d4b-b6a0-d5f75a266302", "symbol": "300669", "name": "Hangzhou Huning Elevator Parts Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.328, "architecture_energy": 80.138, "architecture_maturity": 24.703, "architecture_confidence": 85.86, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.71, "rotation_up": 9.65, "upward_expansion": 19.28, "deceleration": 37.34, "rotation_down": 76.96, "downward_expansion": 94.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.793334, 23.619819, 26.650597, 28.258287 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 22.790001, "trend_reference": 29.743589, "distance_from_trend": -0.233784, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 21.51066, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.059475, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.823926, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.264428, "excess_performance": -0.271828, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.233784, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028438, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.059475, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.582397, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.268239, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.18621, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.264428, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.750598, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7275268, "relative_activity": 1.010997, "balance": 0.750598, "dry_up": 1.027251, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.154923, "annualized_volatility": 0.515378, "from_high_reference": -0.416875, "from_low_reference": 0.20966 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.743589, "fair_value_reference": 21.51066, "structural_low": 18.84, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.02766, "positive_rate": 0.619048, "directional_follow_through": 0.380952, "median_excess_return": -0.001887, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.28367, "worst_return": -0.162623, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.085258, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": 0.074591, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.454217, "worst_return": -0.199192, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.024923, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.051444, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.7199, "worst_return": -0.130917, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.143136, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.403905, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.148265, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.02952, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.253846, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": 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"typical_volume": 8682507.7, "trend": 30.395456, "fair_value": 21.35142, "relative_strength": -26.304098, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -45.067889, "energy": 56.619812, "activity_lines": [ 26.715334, 28.177977, 29.922588, 30.475209 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.66, "volume": 6029608, "typical_volume": 8640076.85, "trend": 30.272314, "fair_value": 21.401564, "relative_strength": -25.923502, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.067334, "energy": 80.138295, "activity_lines": [ 25.093334, 26.91888, 29.114043, 29.976147 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.57, "volume": 10811650, "typical_volume": 8241323.6, "trend": 30.106106, "fair_value": 21.43288, "relative_strength": -32.498183, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.776767, "energy": 85.218275, "activity_lines": [ 23.141333, 25.477172, 28.162044, 29.350191 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.25, "volume": 5452418, "typical_volume": 7362515.3, "trend": 29.858408, "fair_value": 21.460566, "relative_strength": -32.059476, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.674036, "energy": 87.053876, "activity_lines": [ 21.830667, 24.189818, 27.25466, 28.714314 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.790001, "volume": 7275268, "typical_volume": 7196133.05, "trend": 29.743589, "fair_value": 21.51066, "relative_strength": -26.823926, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.327712, "energy": 80.137987, "activity_lines": [ 21.793334, 23.619819, 26.650597, 28.258287 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }