{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2744dba4-6027-4a40-8480-ef8d4695e614", "symbol": "CHD", "name": "Church & Dwight Co., Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 52.78, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 72.228, "architecture_energy": 54.431, "architecture_maturity": 17.23, "architecture_confidence": 68.296, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.09, "rotation_up": 65.1, "upward_expansion": 81.56, "deceleration": 51.49, "rotation_down": 14.33, "downward_expansion": 8.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 86.834666, 86.049453, 84.535794, 84.02643 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 88.779999, "trend_reference": 83.332057, "distance_from_trend": 0.065376, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 86.717333, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.023786, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.016067, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.043446, "excess_performance": -0.130801, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.065376, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055672, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.023786, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.113458, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.090161, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067588, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.043446, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.52071, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 119, "relative_activity": 2.589771, "balance": 3.52071, "dry_up": 4.102285, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036072, "annualized_volatility": 0.158246, "from_high_reference": -0.012898, "from_low_reference": 0.282905 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 83.332057, "fair_value_reference": 86.717333, "structural_low": 76.467949, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.002446, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.002919, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.102211, "worst_return": -0.076381, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.000419, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.029226, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.154698, "worst_return": -0.162956, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.046236, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.028313, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.257012, "worst_return": -0.142462, "sufficient": true }, 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"volume": 0, "typical_volume": 9.2, "trend": 81.79199, "fair_value": 86.66006, "relative_strength": -8.369951, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.35763, "energy": 56.548091, "activity_lines": [ 85.563999, 84.755272, 83.455247, 83.155879 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 85.739998, "volume": 159, "typical_volume": 16.2, "trend": 82.267149, "fair_value": 86.667556, "relative_strength": -10.338527, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.424566, "energy": 38.232074, "activity_lines": [ 85.719998, 85.075635, 83.716829, 83.41059 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 85.82, "volume": 476, "typical_volume": 40.0, "trend": 82.787326, "fair_value": 86.688502, "relative_strength": -9.737168, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.788452, "energy": 36.228039, "activity_lines": [ 85.743999, 85.321454, 83.985425, 83.639806 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 88.779999, "volume": 119, "typical_volume": 45.95, "trend": 83.332057, "fair_value": 86.717333, "relative_strength": -9.016067, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.227556, "energy": 54.431344, "activity_lines": [ 86.834666, 86.049453, 84.535794, 84.02643 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }