{ "ticker": { "uuid": "27469937-2d83-44d6-bcb8-3bfb4ac80222", "symbol": "ERFO", "name": "Laboratorio Farmaceutico Erfo S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.243, "architecture_energy": 18.253, "architecture_maturity": 19.535, "architecture_confidence": 62.0, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.36, "rotation_up": 23.14, "upward_expansion": 20.78, "deceleration": 55.33, "rotation_down": 39.2, "downward_expansion": 54.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.142333, 1.147636, 1.138786, 1.151398 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 1.12, "trend_reference": 1.191667, "distance_from_trend": -0.06014, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.185476, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.055232, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.533439, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.157895, "excess_performance": -0.328786, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.06014, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087661, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.055232, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018926, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.285334, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019577, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.157895, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.558712, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 162000, "relative_activity": 1.789067, "balance": 0.558712, "dry_up": 0.999448, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055288, "annualized_volatility": 0.365171, "from_high_reference": -0.377778, "from_low_reference": 0.108911 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.191667, "fair_value_reference": 1.185476, "structural_low": 1.01, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.009365, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.002415, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.142857, "worst_return": -0.050691, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.024718, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.028168, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.270042, "worst_return": -0.126761, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.052897, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.033647, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.21097, "worst_return": -0.105176, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.039036, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.156486, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.149801, "worst_return": -0.07173, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.065366, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.023622, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.035211, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.188679, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.122066, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.084388, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.042802, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.051948, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.046512, 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"typical_volume": 186600.0, "trend": 1.274, "fair_value": 1.177466, "relative_strength": -30.222866, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.658043, "energy": 45.40768, "activity_lines": [ 1.101333, 1.115545, 1.140571, 1.195677 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 1.13, "volume": 29000, "typical_volume": 181050.0, "trend": 1.261667, "fair_value": 1.177806, "relative_strength": -29.747294, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.98302, "energy": 37.470829, "activity_lines": [ 1.110667, 1.117091, 1.135167, 1.186387 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 1.155, "volume": 11000, "typical_volume": 141400.0, "trend": 1.253, "fair_value": 1.178608, "relative_strength": -25.59029, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.373604, "energy": 25.739728, "activity_lines": [ 1.125667, 1.122455, 1.133333, 1.179505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 1.16, "volume": 12000, "typical_volume": 121650.0, "trend": 1.243833, "fair_value": 1.179381, "relative_strength": -26.969539, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.617646, "energy": 18.383704, "activity_lines": [ 1.140667, 1.127182, 1.13281, 1.173505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.195, "volume": 83000, "typical_volume": 106150.0, "trend": 1.233833, "fair_value": 1.180561, "relative_strength": -24.018595, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.230023, "energy": 12.315547, "activity_lines": [ 1.162667, 1.140091, 1.136714, 1.170355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.18, "volume": 104000, "typical_volume": 103650.0, "trend": 1.224333, "fair_value": 1.182275, "relative_strength": -23.46411, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.196381, "energy": 14.451445, "activity_lines": [ 1.173333, 1.149455, 1.139976, 1.166882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.14, "volume": 36000, "typical_volume": 91650.0, "trend": 1.213333, "fair_value": 1.183435, "relative_strength": -25.490012, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.190005, "energy": 13.466205, "activity_lines": [ 1.165333, 1.150727, 1.139738, 1.161441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.14, "volume": 60000, "typical_volume": 86650.0, "trend": 1.202333, "fair_value": 1.184504, "relative_strength": -25.53158, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.249537, "energy": 10.918942, "activity_lines": [ 1.156667, 1.151091, 1.140167, 1.15671 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.12, "volume": 162000, "typical_volume": 90550.0, "trend": 1.191667, "fair_value": 1.185476, "relative_strength": -28.533439, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.242659, "energy": 18.252517, "activity_lines": [ 1.142333, 1.147636, 1.138786, 1.151398 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }