{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2748487e-3cf9-4043-ba65-784484e22598", "symbol": "PINR", "name": "Amundi PEA Inde (MSCI India) UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 71.451, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 33.078, "architecture_energy": 21.199, "architecture_maturity": 21.412, "architecture_confidence": 41.256, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.1, "rotation_up": 42.33, "upward_expansion": 37.0, "deceleration": 43.95, "rotation_down": 27.29, "downward_expansion": 18.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.078667, 23.046473, 22.806595, 22.76223 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 23.315001, "trend_reference": 22.910933, "distance_from_trend": 0.017636, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 25.280708, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.077755, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.413728, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.04525, "excess_performance": -0.098561, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.017636, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032156, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.077755, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023493, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.084137, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008647, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.04525, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.701662, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 90676, "relative_activity": 0.982335, "balance": 0.701662, "dry_up": 0.653607, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024636, "annualized_volatility": 0.183091, "from_high_reference": -0.108379, "from_low_reference": 0.126057 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.910933, "fair_value_reference": 25.280708, "structural_low": 20.705, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.021086, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.016595, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.026727, "worst_return": -0.075431, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.077464, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.08294, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.111399, "worst_return": -0.16391, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.062503, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.134416, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.082199, "worst_return": -0.099434, "sufficient": true }, { 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.057257, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.039337, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.06368, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.019695, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.074783, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.044776, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010928, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.051434, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.008426, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.000643, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 21.333, "volume": 16639, "typical_volume": 28657.1, "trend": 20.346666, "fair_value": 19.719942, "relative_strength": -3.343716, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", 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"trend": 23.111333, "fair_value": 25.249804, "relative_strength": -7.187678, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.612376, "energy": 28.318691, "activity_lines": [ 23.066333, 22.863745, 22.638981, 22.75577 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.725, "volume": 52449, "typical_volume": 101932.25, "trend": 23.034767, "fair_value": 25.256535, "relative_strength": -7.718855, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.816331, "energy": 10.89302, "activity_lines": [ 22.926333, 22.875963, 22.661847, 22.730845 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.17, "volume": 54734, "typical_volume": 95554.35, "trend": 22.963767, "fair_value": 25.267753, "relative_strength": -7.074657, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 19.901371, "energy": 13.838491, "activity_lines": [ 22.973, 22.956036, 22.729428, 22.73957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.315001, "volume": 90676, "typical_volume": 92306.55, "trend": 22.910933, "fair_value": 25.280708, "relative_strength": -8.413728, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.078278, "energy": 21.198621, "activity_lines": [ 23.078667, 23.046473, 22.806595, 22.76223 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }