{ "ticker": { "uuid": "274a837a-2164-45f8-a969-ba6616a1b73c", "symbol": "279530", "name": "Samsung Investment Trust Management - Samsung Kodex High Dividend ETF Fund", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -4.195, "architecture_energy": 4.061, "architecture_maturity": 12.478, "architecture_confidence": 76.619, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 73.88, "rotation_up": 27.13, "upward_expansion": 22.19, "deceleration": 47.92, "rotation_down": 27.02, "downward_expansion": 24.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 17431.777344, 17355.502805, 17588.023605, 17630.598753 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 17550.0, "trend_reference": 17455.915039, "distance_from_trend": 0.00539, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11506.71593, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.525196, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.247684, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.083984, "excess_performance": -0.145845, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.00539, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076657, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.525196, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.213286, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.082477, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.205733, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.083984, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.592452, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1181417, "relative_activity": 0.642858, "balance": 0.592452, "dry_up": 0.955847, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071566, "annualized_volatility": 0.35002, "from_high_reference": -0.12, "from_low_reference": 0.435893 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17455.915039, "fair_value_reference": 11506.71593, "structural_low": 15534.713086, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.008635, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.025043, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.033282, "worst_return": -0.054535, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.00252, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.014119, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.054268, "worst_return": -0.017416, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.006873, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.0427, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.29347, 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"close": 17545.03125, "volume": 1512840, "typical_volume": 1856026.65, "trend": 17209.204785, "fair_value": 11383.796587, "relative_strength": -15.471419, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.603492, "energy": 6.720143, "activity_lines": [ 17376.73112, 17390.813707, 17651.465234, 17617.068065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17195.0, "volume": 2509117, "typical_volume": 1860890.85, "trend": 17326.069564, "fair_value": 11444.189869, "relative_strength": -15.282023, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.979769, "energy": 5.299096, "activity_lines": [ 17389.86263, 17330.565092, 17603.184896, 17616.151628 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17550.0, "volume": 1181417, "typical_volume": 1837756.25, "trend": 17455.915039, "fair_value": 11506.71593, "relative_strength": -8.247684, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -4.195063, "energy": 4.061004, "activity_lines": [ 17431.777344, 17355.502805, 17588.023605, 17630.598753 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }