{ "ticker": { "uuid": "274f62b1-6765-4343-b024-8dc2aecb28db", "symbol": "XCEL", "name": "Xcel Energy Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 21.457, "architecture_energy": 9.608, "architecture_maturity": 33.595, "architecture_confidence": 72.725, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.42, "rotation_up": 29.86, "upward_expansion": 58.87, "deceleration": 82.29, "rotation_down": 26.7, "downward_expansion": 15.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 69.066667, 69.667523, 69.09243, 68.939302 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 67.5, "trend_reference": 68.287142, "distance_from_trend": -0.011527, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 58.223573, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.159324, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.690136, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.07591, "excess_performance": -0.098337, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.011527, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02172, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.159324, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026846, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.176901, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064361, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.07591, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": null, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": null, "balance": null, "dry_up": null, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084054, "annualized_volatility": 0.303457, "from_high_reference": -0.129032, "from_low_reference": 0.142477 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 68.287142, "fair_value_reference": 58.223573, "structural_low": 59.972851, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": -0.023215, "regime_survival": 0.470588, "best_return": 0.150326, "worst_return": -0.113681, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.024555, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.059252, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.127406, "worst_return": -0.099667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.083348, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.077101, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.405022, "worst_return": -0.125334, "sufficient": true }, { 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70.666667, 69.593905, 69.059214, 68.69766 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 71.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.15, "trend": 67.968045, "fair_value": 57.984836, "relative_strength": -11.008284, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.144454, "energy": 32.727242, "activity_lines": [ 71.0, 70.128953, 69.292693, 68.947187 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 68.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.15, "trend": 68.154176, "fair_value": 58.104928, "relative_strength": -14.332358, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.633479, "energy": 18.078346, "activity_lines": [ 70.066667, 70.044138, 69.232967, 68.981507 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 67.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.0, "trend": 68.287142, "fair_value": 58.223573, "relative_strength": -17.690136, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.456574, "energy": 9.608136, "activity_lines": [ 69.066667, 69.667523, 69.09243, 68.939302 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }