{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2754d1cb-15c3-4226-be56-97fc0f0533d5", "symbol": "SDIU", "name": "Global X SuperDividend UCITS ETF USD Cap", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 77.758, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -0.266, "architecture_energy": 6.853, "architecture_maturity": 28.869, "architecture_confidence": 80.006, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 66.87, "rotation_up": 45.11, "upward_expansion": 31.83, "deceleration": 33.63, "rotation_down": 19.92, "downward_expansion": 21.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.057267, 15.981545, 16.029505, 16.038933 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 16.138, "trend_reference": 16.039133, "distance_from_trend": 0.006164, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.980897, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.243211, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.217921, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.003827, "excess_performance": -0.055063, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.006164, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023934, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.243211, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082283, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.032179, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098784, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.003827, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.016201, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1569, "relative_activity": 0.764452, "balance": 2.016201, "dry_up": 1.215742, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030716, "annualized_volatility": 0.110714, "from_high_reference": -0.045541, "from_low_reference": 0.186618 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.039133, "fair_value_reference": 12.980897, "structural_low": 15.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.000781, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.000116, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.051705, "worst_return": -0.100623, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.096499, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.066318, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.118629, "worst_return": 0.036001, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.115038, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.065715, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.158901, "worst_return": 0.071175, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.273854, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.132686, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.339651, "worst_return": 0.208058, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041553, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.010478, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005877, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.012711, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012982, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.037984, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007502, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.053215, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.118065, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010343, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.114138, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011927, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.081393, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.021975, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 10.644, "volume": 15859, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, 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16.007454 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 15.895, "volume": 12130, "typical_volume": 2027.85, "trend": 15.893033, "fair_value": 12.856205, "relative_strength": -1.198726, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.27899, "energy": 23.619726, "activity_lines": [ 15.841333, 15.893273, 16.016562, 16.009927 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.066, "volume": 4635, "typical_volume": 2189.65, "trend": 15.9335, "fair_value": 12.88725, "relative_strength": -1.055663, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -5.782594, "energy": 6.768442, "activity_lines": [ 15.91, 15.907309, 16.019114, 16.021086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.09, "volume": 1248, "typical_volume": 1996.1, "trend": 15.9744, "fair_value": 12.917199, "relative_strength": -2.113996, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 0.007118, "energy": 3.515482, "activity_lines": [ 15.989667, 15.935982, 16.025662, 16.031183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.968, "volume": 2529, "typical_volume": 1990.5, "trend": 16.011467, "fair_value": 12.948026, "relative_strength": -4.005935, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -0.49538, "energy": 5.603226, "activity_lines": [ 16.000267, 15.9426, 16.020381, 16.03077 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.138, "volume": 1569, "typical_volume": 2052.45, "trend": 16.039133, "fair_value": 12.980897, "relative_strength": -3.217921, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -0.266002, "energy": 6.852508, "activity_lines": [ 16.057267, 15.981545, 16.029505, 16.038933 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }