{ "ticker": { "uuid": "275bee3b-077d-4575-b500-a1f1c098bf24", "symbol": "UVSP", "name": "Univest Corporation Pennsylvania", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 59.993, "architecture_energy": 50.169, "architecture_maturity": 82.974, "architecture_confidence": 68.935, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.63, "rotation_up": 47.05, "upward_expansion": 79.31, "deceleration": 71.08, "rotation_down": 27.6, "downward_expansion": 8.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 43.585779, 43.509812, 41.937124, 40.19684 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 42.84, "trend_reference": 38.0025, "distance_from_trend": 0.127294, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.444693, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.560958, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 7.934666, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.210369, "excess_performance": 0.022915, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.127294, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.107795, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.560958, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027974, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.079347, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058661, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.210369, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.203412, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1456028, "relative_activity": 1.320916, "balance": 1.203412, "dry_up": 1.260277, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051911, "annualized_volatility": 0.20549, "from_high_reference": -0.052634, "from_low_reference": 0.558419 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.0025, "fair_value_reference": 27.444693, "structural_low": 31.224714, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.012667, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.015999, "regime_survival": 0.607143, "best_return": 0.134169, "worst_return": -0.139972, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.005688, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.010292, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.234445, "worst_return": -0.35695, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.018482, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.028896, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.331236, "worst_return": -0.371711, "sufficient": true }, { 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1004785.8, "trend": 36.888775, "fair_value": 26.951764, "relative_strength": 17.765931, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.479095, "energy": 80.617328, "activity_lines": [ 43.786399, 42.802025, 40.67424, 38.97586 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 43.872119, "volume": 1448436, "typical_volume": 1035512.85, "trend": 37.252705, "fair_value": 27.119026, "relative_strength": 17.824805, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.573081, "energy": 61.772013, "activity_lines": [ 43.9093, 43.196282, 41.176718, 39.426398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 44.011395, "volume": 1687827, "typical_volume": 1077632.9, "trend": 37.65684, "fair_value": 27.285611, "relative_strength": 16.958156, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.251645, "energy": 57.575021, "activity_lines": [ 43.929819, 43.502368, 41.640046, 39.862443 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 42.84, "volume": 1456028, "typical_volume": 1102286.5, "trend": 38.0025, "fair_value": 27.444693, "relative_strength": 7.934666, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.992641, "energy": 50.16946, "activity_lines": [ 43.585779, 43.509812, 41.937124, 40.19684 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }