{ "ticker": { "uuid": "275c5016-94b0-4dd9-a4a8-c89fc56b83a4", "symbol": "QLD", "name": "ProShares Ultra QQQ", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 73.104, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 36.16, "architecture_energy": 28.338, "architecture_maturity": 71.943, "architecture_confidence": 76.176, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.89, "rotation_up": 26.1, "upward_expansion": 58.07, "deceleration": 88.3, "rotation_down": 37.26, "downward_expansion": 21.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 1514.77797, 1544.54187, 1542.250454, 1470.884313 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1571.699951, "trend_reference": 1382.587215, "distance_from_trend": 0.136782, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1698.802633, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.074819, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.807841, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.337898, "excess_performance": 0.392565, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.136782, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006133, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.074819, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021586, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.088078, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.143366, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.337898, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.165451, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2985, "relative_activity": 4.83675, "balance": 1.165451, "dry_up": 1.911205, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058106, "annualized_volatility": 0.397544, "from_high_reference": -0.442636, "from_low_reference": 0.491176 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1382.587215, "fair_value_reference": 1698.802633, "structural_low": 1054.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.038575, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.090036, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.195445, "worst_return": -0.002896, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.240844, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.257479, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.370927, "worst_return": 0.077821, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.406693, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.341489, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.412534, "worst_return": -0.118677, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.221195, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.113989, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.8024, "worst_return": -0.51987, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.084806, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.123107, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.173217, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.284492, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.149917, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.257631, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.001447, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.06214, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.070842, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.092857, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.076446, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.006369, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.012797, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.045298, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1030.281982, "volume": 115, "typical_volume": 4026.45, "trend": 949.341207, "fair_value": 1153.95844, "relative_strength": 14.418165, "stage": 1, 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"typical_volume": 472.85, "trend": 1367.159798, "fair_value": 1693.593512, "relative_strength": -14.207678, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.794351, "energy": 29.867827, "activity_lines": [ 1547.213322, 1575.081834, 1532.629061, 1454.235802 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1426.599976, "volume": 1337, "typical_volume": 525.15, "trend": 1373.088208, "fair_value": 1695.548784, "relative_strength": -18.20935, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.922323, "energy": 22.590667, "activity_lines": [ 1501.29065, 1544.809036, 1531.167957, 1458.070653 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1571.699951, "volume": 2985, "typical_volume": 617.15, "trend": 1382.587215, "fair_value": 1698.802633, "relative_strength": -8.807841, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.160234, "energy": 28.338227, "activity_lines": [ 1514.77797, 1544.54187, 1542.250454, 1470.884313 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }