{ "ticker": { "uuid": "275e7561-6c14-4a00-b251-378ecedce95b", "symbol": "FIGB", "name": "FIDELITY MERRIMACK STREET TRUST FIDELITY INVT GRADE BD ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 51.922, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.976, "architecture_energy": 53.46, "architecture_maturity": 4.664, "architecture_confidence": 93.858, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.38, "rotation_up": 12.52, "upward_expansion": 11.48, "deceleration": 38.52, "rotation_down": 63.95, "downward_expansion": 87.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 42.287877, 42.424, 42.533772, 42.618464 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 42.37, "trend_reference": 42.72445, "distance_from_trend": -0.008296, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 40.574681, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.044247, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.537571, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.011419, "excess_performance": -0.137044, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.008296, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001283, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.044247, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019703, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.115376, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013018, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.011419, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.506798, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 318693, "relative_activity": 0.657124, "balance": 0.506798, "dry_up": 2.22425, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.011617, "annualized_volatility": 0.041766, "from_high_reference": -0.027046, "from_low_reference": 0.02126 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 42.72445, "fair_value_reference": 40.574681, "structural_low": 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42.68047, 42.739709 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 42.494214, "volume": 466849, "typical_volume": 349271.15, "trend": 42.775798, "fair_value": 40.487647, "relative_strength": -8.590183, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.034338, "energy": 26.026016, "activity_lines": [ 42.577146, 42.615175, 42.656595, 42.72119 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 42.225137, "volume": 383224, "typical_volume": 349347.8, "trend": 42.7581, "fair_value": 40.515271, "relative_strength": -8.396842, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.498244, "energy": 47.229941, "activity_lines": [ 42.439758, 42.54837, 42.611875, 42.685663 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 42.085, "volume": 3146116, "typical_volume": 489351.3, "trend": 42.738494, "fair_value": 40.543507, "relative_strength": -9.367031, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.341296, "energy": 58.952261, "activity_lines": [ 42.291377, 42.457097, 42.557773, 42.642237 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 42.37, "volume": 318693, "typical_volume": 484981.7, "trend": 42.72445, "fair_value": 40.574681, "relative_strength": -11.537571, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.976445, "energy": 53.460266, "activity_lines": [ 42.287877, 42.424, 42.533772, 42.618464 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }