{ "ticker": { "uuid": "27663c7a-6dcd-4181-93e1-6c576387cb45", "symbol": "ZLAB", "name": "Zai Lab Ltd", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 74.623, "architecture_energy": 50.495, "architecture_maturity": 26.435, "architecture_confidence": 58.637, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.39, "rotation_up": 67.24, "upward_expansion": 80.39, "deceleration": 50.19, "rotation_down": 12.94, "downward_expansion": 9.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.548667, 19.793273, 19.493095, 19.491978 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 23.32, "trend_reference": 19.345667, "distance_from_trend": 0.205438, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.432179, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.045521, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.871058, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.295556, "excess_performance": 0.108102, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.205438, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00533, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.045521, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.218857, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.088711, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.327345, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.295556, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.846435, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4244910, "relative_activity": 1.044405, "balance": 0.846435, "dry_up": 0.890155, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.09237, "annualized_volatility": 0.614473, "from_high_reference": -0.365787, "from_low_reference": 0.461153 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.345667, "fair_value_reference": 24.432179, "structural_low": 16.26, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.054146, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": -0.071221, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.461889, "worst_return": -0.239362, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.260134, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.323831, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.118065, "worst_return": -0.394379, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.344262, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.478829, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.408775, "worst_return": -0.674083, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.324823, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.577562, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.018498, "worst_return": -0.772189, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.062065, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.363725, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.101405, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.125518, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.421637, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.014182, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.204834, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.252201, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.015242, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", 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24.584103, "relative_strength": -22.419181, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.330654, "energy": 17.017587, "activity_lines": [ 19.633333, 18.857455, 19.251857, 19.276344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.22, "volume": 2594849, "typical_volume": 4018897.65, "trend": 19.155333, "fair_value": 24.505449, "relative_strength": -23.501234, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 9.748501, "energy": 17.62015, "activity_lines": [ 19.640667, 18.959818, 19.231095, 19.28243 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.27, "volume": 3109230, "typical_volume": 4064856.15, "trend": 19.186667, "fair_value": 24.447949, "relative_strength": -26.12581, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -2.56053, "energy": 10.08668, "activity_lines": [ 19.262, 18.914364, 19.121381, 19.225312 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.32, "volume": 4244910, "typical_volume": 4064429.0, "trend": 19.345667, "fair_value": 24.432179, "relative_strength": -8.871058, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.623035, "energy": 50.494868, "activity_lines": [ 20.548667, 19.793273, 19.493095, 19.491978 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }