{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2767064f-f4b2-4c7e-b121-2983a4d2ac3c", "symbol": "NEXT", "name": "NextSource Materials Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.541, "architecture_energy": 65.259, "architecture_maturity": 17.494, "architecture_confidence": 79.198, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.87, "rotation_up": 9.23, "upward_expansion": 13.86, "deceleration": 37.87, "rotation_down": 70.47, "downward_expansion": 87.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.292, 0.306909, 0.324619, 0.327118 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.3, "trend_reference": 0.350333, "distance_from_trend": -0.143673, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.640897, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.531906, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -30.817077, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.4, "excess_performance": -0.520421, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.143673, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069088, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.531906, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010884, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.308171, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.152873, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.4, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.038286, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 139900, "relative_activity": 0.270213, "balance": 2.038286, "dry_up": 0.346941, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.120513, "annualized_volatility": 0.611235, "from_high_reference": -0.52381, "from_low_reference": 0.25 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.350333, "fair_value_reference": 0.640897, "structural_low": 0.24, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.026087, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.011137, "regime_survival": 0.787879, "best_return": 0.791667, "worst_return": -0.4, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.121894, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": 0.102184, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.625, "worst_return": -0.384615, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.164384, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.225047, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.627907, "worst_return": -0.540984, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 0.308667, 0.332727, 0.332905, 0.339355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.3, "volume": 85700, "typical_volume": 587880.0, "trend": 0.356667, "fair_value": 0.656987, "relative_strength": -30.501392, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.234273, "energy": 59.253675, "activity_lines": [ 0.3, 0.324, 0.330762, 0.33557 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.28, "volume": 367500, "typical_volume": 546830.0, "trend": 0.354333, "fair_value": 0.648269, "relative_strength": -34.082428, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.853542, "energy": 70.53, "activity_lines": [ 0.290667, 0.312727, 0.326714, 0.330624 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.3, "volume": 139900, "typical_volume": 517740.0, "trend": 0.350333, "fair_value": 0.640897, "relative_strength": -30.817077, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.540657, "energy": 65.259198, "activity_lines": [ 0.292, 0.306909, 0.324619, 0.327118 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }